Thursday, September 18, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 3, 2014 -- Thursday Edition

Tampa Bay (+6.5) at ATLANTA (47): What's the bigger mystery in this game? Is it:
A) What the hell happened to the Falcons offense last week? Were they off picnicking with Detroit's offense? Maybe they had the runs from too many SkyLine three-ways?
or
B) What the hell has happened to Doug Martin? Bobby Rainey looks like friggin' Jim Brown behind this line, and even when he wasn't hurt, Martin was running in molasses.
In any case, I suspect the Falcons are going to explode here, Bobby Rainey be damned (and dragging Josh McCown along behind him).

Falcons 29, Buccaneers 17.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

The Football Hoser's Week Two 2014 Results

Oof.

After an acceptable first week (anything .500 or above in Week One is fine by me), I was betting on some teams regressing to their norms. They didn't.

We finished 7-9 against the spread and a miserable 6-10 straight up. Seriously, it's hard to be that bad picking just winners. Yay, Hoser!

The Bills looked awfully .. well, the word is "solid." They have good lines, a strong running game and a QB in E.J. Manuel who seems to understand he doesn't need to be the hero, just a manager. I don't have quite as much faith in Cleveland, but again, fundamentally the Browns are sound.

On the flipside, does New Orleans actually practice defense, or do they all sit on the sidelines and watch Drew Brees play catch with Jimmy Graham? Defensive coordinator (and I use that term extremely loosely) Rob Ryan had words on the sideline with head coach Sean Peyton, but those words had to be, "Yes, we suck. Yes, I'm aware of it. No, I don't expect to be employed here much longer."

See you Thursday with the Thursday night game!

2014 Week Two

ATS: 7-9
SU: 6-10
Total $: -$690

2014 Season Totals

ATS: 15-15-2
SU: 15-17
Total $: -$1,050

Sunday, September 14, 2014

The Football Hoser's 2014 Week 2 ProLine Sunday Update

Here's my Sunday morning look at the differential between the Vegas and ProLine lines and what you might be able to take advantage of. For those of you outside Canada, this won't mean a damned thing. ProLine is the government-run betting line in which they set the lines and you must parlay at least two games for a legal card on the point spreads, so you can go back to waiting for Keith Olbermann to just fire nukes at the NFL office or whatever.

My Lock of the Week, Atlanta, slips just a half-point to a +5 underdog to Cincinnati, which is a steal. In the Trifecta, the Lions also slip a half-point to a +2 dog to Carolina, and Arizona remains a 2.5-point favourite on the road at the Giants.

Obviously the huge move here is the Patriots becoming a 6.5-point favourite over Minnesota with the absence of Adrian Peterson. I adjust my pick earlier in the week to give New England enough cushion to cover, but I'm having second thoughts. I would just stay away from this one.

There's also an important move from +3 to +3.5 for Philadelphia on the road in Indy. That half-point makes the Eagles a nice add to the end of deep parlay cards. Same goes for Chicago, which slips off the number to +7.5 in San Francisco.

In other games:

* KC slips a point to +13 in DEN
* Seattle moves a half to -6.5 at SD

That's everything this morning -- good luck!

Friday, September 12, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week Two, 2014

Welcome to Week Two of the 2014 edition of the Football Hoser's NFL picks, where at least I have more job security than Roger Goddell.

The league announced this week it would conduct an "independent" investigation into its handling of the Ray Rice case. Any time "independent" is used from here on out in reference to this fiasco, it should definitely be set off with quotation marks, and preferably the kind Chris Farley used to use. One thing's guaranteed -- even if everything comes up roses for the NFL, the findings will still leave The Commissioner redfaced.

As for the Thursday pick, the Ravens sure were distracted, huh? At least I'm in good company, as I think about 90% of prognosticators took Pittsburgh and the points. I don't want to say Mike Tomlin's job might be in jeopardy, but somewhere Bill Cowher is waxing his mustache and muttering to himself.

Remember, these picks are for fun. Using these picks to make actual bets is as advisable as having the Orioles' Chris Davis pick up your Adderall prescription.

Detroit (+2.5) at CAROLINA (43.5): I know it's not exactly the same state, but I like to imagine all the Panthers talk like Lindsey Graham. Lions 27, Panthers 21.
Miami (PK) at BUFFALO (43): So Terry Pegula now owns the Bills and the Sabres. I'm pretty sure for $1.98, they'll throw in whatever's left in Buffalo. Dolphins 23, Bills 20.
Jacksonville (+6) at WASHINGTON (43.5): Either RGIII gets right this week or he ain't gettin' right at all. Buy your Kirk Cousins rookie cards now before the rush! Racists 23, Jaguars 19.
Dallas (+3.5) at TENNESSEE (49.5): A pair of 0-2s -- the Cowboys' mark after this week and Jerry Jones' record with bathroom strippers. Titans 29, Cowboys 20.
New England (-3) at MINNESOTA (49): Are we really giving the Vikings defense this much credit for stopping the Rams? I've taken natural laxatives with more push than the St. Louis O-line. Still, the Pats' line didn't look much better. Vikings 24, Patriots 23.
ADDENDUM: I'm sure you've all heard the news by now -- ADP has been deactivated for this Sunday's game. While I have nothing against Matt Asiata, this is like pulling a TD away from Minnesota. The game might come off the board, but for now, change the pick to ... Patriots 26, Vikings 17.
New Orleans (-6.5) at CLEVELAND (47.5): A more effective defense might be to have Rob Ryan just eat Brian Hoyer. Saints 30, Browns 20.
Atlanta (+5.5) at CINCINNATI (49): This line confuses me. Was the Falcons' offense blacked out in Vegas? Falcons 31, Bengals 23.
St. Louis (+6) at TAMPA BAY (37): Ladies and gentlemen, would you please welcome back Mr. Tony Banks! Buccaneers 16, Rams 13.    
Houston (-3) at OAKLAND (40): Texans head coach Bill O'Brien probably had a tougher game against Eastern Michigan last year. Texans 22, Raiders 16.
NY Jets (+8.5) at GREEN BAY (46): It's going to be hard not to make a joke out of Ha Ha Clinton Dix every week. Uh huh huh, hard. Packers 26, Jets 18.
Kansas City (+12) at DENVER (51): Two defensive starters gone for the season, an offense already in shambles. If Andy Reid turns to cheesesteaks for solace, he'll look like Jabba The Hutt by Week Six. Broncos 34, Chiefs 20.
Philadelphia (+3) at INDIANAPOLIS (53.5): Eagles quarterback Nick Foles had trouble with fumbles last week, but at least he can look at the sideline and know none of them were caused by running into his own lineman's ass. Colts 27, Eagles 26.
Chicago (+7) at SAN FRANCISCO (48.5): Tough to understand how the Bears couldn't find a way to get Devin Hester into the passing game last season, huh? 49ers 30, Bears 19.
Arizona (-2.5) at NY GIANTS (42.5): Please send your Eli Manning jokes to: Football Hoser, 34 Igloo Lane, Waycold, ON. Cardinals 27, Giants 19. 
Seattle (-6) at SAN DIEGO (44): A late Philip Rivers pass will get this in under the number. Seahawks 27, Chargers 24.

Lock of the Week: Atlanta
Trifecta: Atlanta, Detroit, Arizona

2014 Week One

ATS: 8-6-2
SU: 9-7
Total $: -$360

Thursday, September 11, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 2, 2014 -- Thursday Edition

Pittsburgh (+2.5) at BALTIMORE (44.5): It's tough to concentrate on a football game when the job of the commissioner of the National Football League is on the line. For my money, I'm not sure how Roger Goddell wriggles out of this. There are only two options:

1) Goddell lied about not seeing the tape and his credibility is shot;
2) Goddell didn't know the NFL had the tape and his credibility is shot.

Will the owners stand behind him? Does Goddell know some dirty secrets about what and when the NFL knew about the severity of concussions that will save him? Could he have been any redder on television?

As for the game, after Pittsburgh's collapse last week, I think the Steelers are playing to make a statement and to solidify Mike Tomlin's job. The Ravens have to be distracted right now, and with the line less than a field goal on the road, take the points.

Steelers 24, Ravens 20.

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

The Football Hoser's Week One 2014 Results

So I'm sitting in front of my computer Friday night, looking at the Lock of the Week. Is it New Orleans, or is it San Francisco? I hemmed and I hawed, and eventually, I stood up, pulled out a shotgun and blew off my own foot.

I believe the first lesson we have learned this season is one we probably already knew -- if you need to make a choice between picks, and Dallas is one of them, go against the Cowboys. Also, if I say anything nice about the Rams for the remainder of the season, punch me.

We finished the week 8-6-2 against the spread and 9-7 straight up. I wouldn't be too torn up about being above .500 in the first week, but losing that lock blew every ProLine ticket I had. The totals, both for the week and the season, will be posted every Tuesday morning. The rest of the schedule will be the Thursday night game on Thursday morning and the remainder of the week's contests on Friday morning/early afternoon.

I'm off to wonder how Ray Rice is suspended indefinitely, but Terrell Suggs -- who once dragged his girlfriend along outside a car AND POURED BLEACH ON HER -- suited up this week for the Ravens.

2014 Week One

ATS: 8-6-2
SU: 9-7
Total $: -$360

Sunday, September 7, 2014

The Football Hoser's 2014 Week 1 ProLine Sunday Update

Here's my Sunday morning look at the differential between the Vegas and ProLine lines and what you might be able to take advantage of. For those of you outside Canada, this won't mean a damned thing. ProLine is the government-run betting line in which they set the lines and you must parlay at least two games for a legal card on the point spreads, so you can go back to grilling or watching funny cat videos or whatever.

For all my fellow Canucks, I'll post this every Sunday morning this season. Good luck!

My Lock of the Week is still the lock, as the New Orleans line moves only a point from -3 to -4. Still a solid buy.

In my Trifecta, San Francisco actually gets a point better, dropping from -5.5 to -4.5 as the road favourites over Dallas. Considering the 49ers might score 50 in this game, again, a no-brainer to stay put. We also gain a half-point on the Rams over Minnesota, as we move from -4 to -3.5.

In other games where the ProLine ... uh, line, changes, Indy only slides a half-point, but it's a big half from -7 to -7.5. That would keep me off this one. The Browns gain a half from +6.5 to +7 against the Steelers, which makes them a good add for parlays.

Buffalo picks up a whole point in Chicago to go to more than a touchdown (+7.5), but I still don't like it. I have a rule about not taking teams where the head coach and team officials get into shouting matches about back-up QBs.

Other possible moves you might be considering, but I'm not:

* WAS moves to +3 from +2.5 at HOU
* Detroit is -5.5 from -4.5 over the Giants
* CAR is +2 instead in a pick 'em with TB
* KC drops from -4.5 to -3.5 hosting TEN
* CIN picks up an inconsequential point from +2.5 to +1.5 against PIT in a game where I like the Bengals to win

That still leaves us with my original Trifecta of NO, SF and STL. If you're building a parlay, here are my thoughts:

Two-teamer: NO, SF
Three-teamer: NO, SF, STL
Four-teamer: NO, SF, STL, CIN
Five-teamer: NO, SF, STL, CIN, OAK
Six-teamer: NO, SF, STL, CIN, OAK, CLE