Wednesday, September 30, 2015

The Football Hoser's 2015 NFL Picks, Week Four (Thursday Edition)

We said there was nowhere to go but up, and if you're willing to admit 7-9 against the spread is mathematically better than 6-10, well, PROGRESS! It was another horrible week with a couple of late scores hosing the Hoser (thanks, Tennessee!). We were also 12-4 straight up.

Meanwhile, in the middle of the discussion about the shortage of NFL quarterbacks, can we make an argument that there have never been two QBs this good in the league at the same time? Just when you thought Tom Brady had vaulted himself back to the top of the pack, Aaron Rodgers -- well, there are barely words to describe him dismantling the Chiefs last night. Sure, his O-line play was also excellent, but we're talking about a guy who lost his No. 1 receiver and doesn't appear to even remember his name right now. Unbelievable, and as football fans we're lucky to see these two guys play.

Also, Seth Meyers did this:

And that's funny.

Baltimore (-2.5) at PITTSBURGH (44): You know, this is exactly what the NFL needs right now -- the redemptive story of Michael Vick, fully reformed and ... you know, remorseful ... yeah, he's still a piece of excrement. Ravens 23, Steelers 20.


ATS: 7-9
SU: 12-4
Lock of the Week: 0-1
Trifecta: 0-1
Total: -$620


ATS: 20-27-1
SU: 32-16
Lock of the Week: 0-3
Trifecta: 0-3
Total: $1,870

Sunday, September 27, 2015

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 3 2015 Edition

Welcome to Week Three of the 2015 edition of The Hoser's NFL Picks, where due to the constraints of life, it's mainly just the picks this week.

Philadelphia (+2.5) at NY JETS (47): Another tough D means another L for Philly. Jets 23, Eagles 20.
New Orleans (+7.5) at CAROLINA (43): The coverage could be just as shitty as Verizon's and Luke McCown still couldn't solve it. Panthers 20, Saints 10.
Jacksonville (+13.5) at NEW ENGLAND (47.5): Just about every time I think the line is too big in a New England game, turns out it ain't. Patriots 34, Jaguars 13.
Cincinnati (+2.5) at BALTIMORE (44.5): Normally I would think this is where the Dalton Gang gets shot down, but 37 to the Raiders? Bengals 22, Ravens 20.
Oakland (+3.5) at CLEVELAND (41.5): Really? Back to Josh McCown? Browns 23, Raiders 22.
Indianapolis (-3.5) at TENNESSEE (45.5): The Titans looked terrible on the deep ball last week, and that was just the Browns. Colts 30, Titans 20.
Atlanta (-1) at DALLAS (45): Pretty much a coin flip, but Bryant and now Romo? Actually, yeah. A bunch of handoffs, Weeden throwing to his TEs and the Falcons also down an RB adds up to the home-field advantage winning it. Cowboys 23, Falcons 22.
San Francisco (+6.5) at ARIZONA (44): Which 49ers team shows up this week? Does it matter? Cardinals 31, 49ers 17.
Chicago (+14.5) at SEATTLE (44): You know things are bad when you are wishing Jay Cutler was dressed. Fortunately for Jay, he gets to sit this one out against what we're guessing is an extremely upset Seattle D. Seahawks 27, Bears 16.
Buffalo (+3) at MIAMI (44): This is Sexy Rexy, no other reason. The Dolphins - who can get excited about them? Their mascot should be a piece of dry white toast. Bills 23, Dolphins 20.
Denver (-3) at DETROIT (45.5): People interested in this game are focusing on the wrong quarterback. Peyton will be fine, even if he has to underhand the ball to his receivers. No, is it time for the Lions to move on from Matthew Stafford? Who wouldn't have great numbers with Calvin Johnson? Broncos 24, Lions 17.
Kansas City (+6.5) at GREEN BAY (49): If you look up the phrase "by default," it should simply say, "The Packers winning the NFC North in 2015." A North Korean election is more competitive. Packers 26, Chiefs 20.
Pittsburgh (-1) at ST. LOUIS (47): Steelers 26, Rams 20.
San Diego (+2.5) at MINNESOTA (45): Vikings 22, Chargers 17.
Tampa Bay (+6.5) at HOUSTON (40.5): Buccaneers 19, Texans 17.

Lock of the Week: Arizona
Trifecta: Arizona, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay

Thursday, September 24, 2015

The Football Hoser's 2015 NFL Picks, Week Three (Thursday Edition)

Welcome back to the Football Hoser, where there's nowhere to go up from here.

We were a miserable 6-10 against the spread and just 9-7 straight up. This was a very strange week, though, with multiple teams (Jacksonville? Tampa Bay?!?) pulling off upsets. Thank you to the Baltimore Ravens, who were unable to stop the vaunted offense of the not-for-long Oakland Raiders, many fine folks were knocked out of their suicide leagues. More importantly, they cost me my Lock. Again.

I have to mention this also. During the Monday Night Football Jets/Colts game this week, Jon Gruden was talking about the strength of New York's defense, even without DT Sheldon Richardson. There was a lull, and then Mike Tirico did a good job of pointing out WHY Richardson was on suspension, namely topping 140 mph in his Bentley.

Of course, that doesn't quite cover the whole situation, as Richardson also was traveling with a 12-year-old kid, a loaded handgun and the "heavy" smell of marijuana in the car. Let's stop trying to make the guys in the NFL who are complete dipshits not seem like complete dipshits. Tell the whole story.

Racists (+4) at NEW YORK GIANTS (44): Does anyone else think Washington might have a legitimate shot at winning the division? The Giants are a tire fire telling THEMSELVES not to score, Dallas is down Romo and Bryant,  and the Eagles are ... well, no one knows what the Eagles are -- least of all Chip Kelly. Meanwhile, the Racists have a competent quarterback, a burgeoning star in running back Matt Jones and a crazy dick in the Owner's Box! Still, I think the lesser Manning and company can pull this one out, but it'll be a field goal. GIANTS 21, RACISTS 20.


ATS: 6-10
SU: 11-5
Lock of the Week: 0-1
Trifecta: 0-1
Total: -$840


ATS: 13-18-1
SU: 20-12
Lock of the Week: 0-2
Trifecta: 0-2
Total: $1,250

Saturday, September 19, 2015

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 2 2015 Edition

Welcome to Week Two of the 2015 edition of The Hoser's NFL Picks, where we're pretty sure Gary Kubiak is looking back at his summer spent planning a ball-control offense and wishing he'd gone to Six Flags instead.

We're 0-1 straight up and against the spread after Jamaal Charles graciously decided to share the ball with the Broncos late Thursday night. In better news, though, it appears we won the Football Guys College Football DFS contest on Saturday, and $100 is enough to get Vinnie off my back for another week or two.

And remember – these picks are just for fun. Using them to wager money is as advisable as betting on Jason Pierre Paul in a piano competition.

Houston (+3) at CAROLINA (40.5): How long will the Ryan Mallett era last in Houston? Well, if Arian Foster gets back as quickly as is now being predicted, perhaps longer than you think. We tend to think any quarterback drafted originally by the Patriots must have something on the ball, right? PANTHERS 23, TEXANS 21.
Tampa Bay (+10) at NEW ORLEANS (47): Maybe Jameis Winston had a couple packages of crab legs stuffed in his pants last week. SAINTS 26, BUCCANEERS 17.
San Francisco (+6) at PITTSBURGH (45.5): Did anyone else think last week, even if just for a second, that Troy Polamalu was running the ball for Pittsburgh? STEELERS 23, 49ERS 20.
Detroit (+2.5) at MINNESOTA (43.5): Neither of these teams played well last week and the famous David Dodds Game Predictor has this dead even, so add the home FG ... and then stay the hell away from it. VIKINGS 24, LIONS 22. 
New England (-1) at BUFFALO (45): No sound logic here, just six years of having "Don't be against Bill" beaten into our heads and wallets. PATRIOTS 24, BILLS 20.
Arizona (-1.5) at CHICAGO (46): We'll roll with the Kangol, thank you. CARDINALS 27, BEARS 21.
Tennessee (-1) at CLEVELAND (41.5): Actual believe-the-hype young quarterback against bullshit hype young quarterback. You figure out which is which. TITANS 23, BROWNS 16.
St. Louis (-3.5) at WASHINGTON (41): Tickets for this game have gone as low as $11, which is $11 more than you should have to fork out to see Washington play. RAMS 24, RACISTS 20.
Atlanta (+2.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS (51): The only people who handled a clock situation worse than the Giants last week were the police and school officials in Irving, TX. #IStandWithAhmed FALCONS 27, GIANTS 20.
Baltimore (-6) at OAKLAND (43): You have to have a pretty dreadful haircut to make George W. Bush look like the smart one. Is Davis rich because he owns the rights to the Flowbee? RAVENS 31, RAIDERS 13.
Miami (-6) at JACKSONVILLE (41.5): Blake Bortles the media like ... Blake Bortles handles the offense. DOLPHINS 27, JAGUARS 17.

And the rest ... 

San Diego (+3) at CINCINNATI (47): BENGALS 30, CHARGERS 20.
Dallas (+5) at PHILADELPHIA (55.5): EAGLES 31, COWBOYS 24.
Seattle (+3.5) at GREEN BAY (49): PACKERS 24, SEAHAWKS 23.
New York Jets (+7) at INDIANAPOLIS (47): COLTS 26, JETS 16.

Lock of the Week: Baltimore

Trifecta: Baltimore, Atlanta, Miami

Thursday, September 17, 2015

The Football Hoser's 2015 NFL Picks, Week Two (Thursday Edition)

We're off to another stunning start here at The Football Hoser, where we stumbled to a 7-8-1 week against the spread but managed to miss not only the Lock of the Week, but ALL THREE picks in our Trifecta. We've joked about this in the past, but we're pretty sure if you simply bet the opposite of the games we feel strongest about, at the end of each season you'd have enough cash for a nice cruise while we'd still be dodging calls from our bookie.

We also were 11-5 straight up. Whoopee.

The remainder of the season will work this way, with the Thursday night game coming separately and and the remainder of the schedule at some point on Friday. Unless it doesn't. We function on the same schedule as Lindsay Lohan on a binge -- sloppily and erratically.

Denver (+3) at KANSAS CITY (42): We'll stay with the Chiefs as the hot hand on a short week. Peyton Manning looked a little lost running an offense that requires less chicken dancing than he prefers, and with C.J. Anderson nursing a bum toe (and sinking the hearts of a million fantasy owners), Kansas City should be just fine. CHIEFS 26, BRONCOS 20.


ATS: 7-8-1
SU: 11-5
Lock of the Week: 0-1
Trifecta: 0-1
Total: -$410

Thursday, September 10, 2015

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 1 2015 Edition

Welcome to Week One of the 2015 edition of The Hoser's NFL Picks, where we're ready to uphold our five-year tradition of having absolutely no value to bettors.

For those of you who are just finding us, the first thing to know is this -- we're not to be taken seriously. The format is as follows: each game is $100 ATS, with a $100 Trifecta and a $300 Lock of the Week for an even $2K per week. When the bye weeks begin, we’ll jump the Lock to $500 to keep the number even. We’ll use the National Score Predicting League line each week, the fine folks who send me updates every week to tell me how awful I am at this.

For you fellow Canucks, keep an eye out late Saturday or early Sunday for my ProLine Picks, where I'll highlight late injuries and lines that could make for good value. God bless legalized gambling!

Let's get this out of the way: I'm no Patriots fan, but the whole Deflategate "scandal" was pretty weak. I'm sure Brady knew something damning ("Oh, man, if you had just asked for my phone a couple days ago!"), but having Roger Goddell be the man in charge of your credibility is like putting Lindsay Lohan in charge of your stash. Is it a smoke screen to cover up another NFL cover-up? Eight months ago that would have been crazy to suggest. Now?

The NFL Network also premiered the story of the 2014 Patriots this week. In keeping with the spirit of the thing, I taped it.

All of that leads us to this final sentence, a version of which you’ll see every week: remember – these picks are just for fun. Using them to wager money is as advisable as taking Sheldon Richardson up on his offer to drive your kids to school.

Pittsburgh (+7) at NEW ENGLAND (52): No Bell, no Bryant, no chance. Patriots 27, Steelers 17.
Kansas City (+1) at HOUSTON (40.5): The Chiefs are poised to step a big step forward this season, and J.J. Watts can't play all 22 positions. Wait, can he? *Calls Halliburton hotline, imitates Dick Cheney's voice and asks for Cloning Department, gets hung up on* Well, I can't make it happen. CHIEFS 23, TEXANS 17.
Cleveland (+3) at NEW YORK JETS (39.5): You could spend all day debating who has the lousier group of quarterbacks in this game and the fun of it is, there's no right answer! I like Ryan Fitzpatrick (how can you diss a guy who graduated from Harvard?), and he has a knack for playing well the first few games with every new team - until the opposition remembers he can't throw a sideline route and starts jumping everything. JETS 23, BROWNS 17.
Green Bay (-7) at CHICAGO (50): At halftime in the parking lot, Scott Walker will debate ... well, take your pick of any Illinois Republican state-level disaster. The Taliban will then blow up both podiums and Americans everywhere will think, "Maybe they aren't so bad."  PACKERS 26, BEARS 16.
New Orleans (+2.5) at ARIZONA (48): Did you know Drew Brees sat behind Doug Flutie his rookie season? It worked out well, because Doug's so short Drew could see right over him. CARDINALS 24, SAINTS 23.
Indianapolis (-3) at BUFFALO (46.5): I have a great love for Rex Ryan, and I think the Bills are headed in the right direction. But when you cut Fred Jackson and then resign Matt Cassel, I don't think you have much of a shot against Indy. I do really like the under here, though. COLTS 22, BILLS 13.
Miami (-4) at WASHINGTON (43.5): The good thing about RGIII's concussion is maybe he'll forget he works for a bunch of racists. DOLPHINS 24, RACISTS 16.
Carolina (-3.5) at JACKSONVILLE (41): This game won't be very good, but it will feature lots of local ads for fried foods. Getcha sum gizzards, sumbitch! PANTHERS 23, JAGUARS 20.
Seattle (-4) at ST. LOUIS (41): I may have misread the injury report and depth charts, but are the Rams down to Richie Cunningham at running back? Even if not true, any thought you have of picking St. Louis in this game, well, sit on it, Pottsie. SEAHAWKS 26, RAMS 16.
Detroit (+3) at SAN DIEGO (45.5): This is the most inexplicable line of the week for me. Yes, the Chargers are at home - the old-age home. The Lions are clearly better in just about every facet of the game, and I think they win this outright. LIONS 27, CHARGERS 20.
Tennessee (+3) at TAMPA BAY (41.5): Two rookie quarterbacks? Expect more picks than at that Smails' kid's house. BUCCANEERS 23, TITANS 17.
Cincinnati (-3.5) at OAKLAND (43.5): Every year I look at the Raiders' roster and hear David Bryne in my ear chanting, "SAME AS IT EVER WAS!" I'm sure fans would gladly let them move, but then where would they dress up like extras at a crappy wrasslin' promotion? BENGALS 26, RAIDERS 20.
Baltimore (+4.5) at DENVER (49): I don't have a good explanation for why, but I just feel like the Broncos are due to struggle this season. Maybe it's fear of C.J. Anderson being a one-hit wonder, maybe it's just time ... maybe it's because Peyton Manning's head is now sewn directly to his torso. Still, the Ravens are banged up and traveling. BRONCOS 29, RAVENS 22.
New York Giants (+6) at DALLAS (51): The Giants and Jason Pierre-Paul are at a contract impasse. They're apparently far apart on term, money and his offseason fireworks accident, and Pierre-Paul didn't help himself when he showed his displeasure by giving John Mara the finger. COWBOYS 30, GIANTS 23.
Philadelphia (-3) at ATLANTA (55.5): The scoreboard's going to be going off like a pinball machine (you kids remember those, right?) in this one, but the gap between the defenses should allow Chip Kelly's Greatest Show Without Tim Tebow to handle the Falcons. And at 55.5 for the O/U, I'd stay away. EAGLES 30, FALCONS 24.
Minnesota (-2.5) at SAN FRANCISCO (41.5): This is less about how much the Vikings have improved and more about the absolute disaster that is the 49ers roster. I can only suggest they bring back Mike Singletary to make sure the get the first overall pick next season. VIKINGS 24, 49ERS 17.

Lock of the Week: Seattle
Trifecta: Seattle, Detroit, Indianapolis