Sunday, December 28, 2014

The Hoser's 2014 NFL Picks, Week 17 Edition

I think last week was the first time I've missed getting my selections posted in five years. I'm just barely getting them in this week.

Detroit (+7.5) at Green Bay (46.5): Packers 30, Lions 20.
Jacksonville (+8) at Houston (38.5): Texans 24, Jaguars 20.
Cincinnati (+3.5) at Pittsburgh (48): Not two weeks in a row in prime time, Andy. Steelers 31, Bengals 20.
Indianapolis (-7.5)  at Tennessee (46.5): Colts 26, Titans 16.
Cleveland (+13.5) at Baltimore (40): I'm hoping to look at the sidelines this week and see Brian Sipe. Ravens 24, Browns 13.
Buffalo (+5.5) at New England (43.5): Edelman and Gronk are out. No matter. Patriots 27, Bills 17.
New York Jets (+7) at Miami (41.5): So long, Rex Ryan. At least he might enjoy getting the boot. Dolphins 23, Jets 20.
Carolina (+3) at Atlanta (47.5): Carolina is really the better team, but I have a weird feeling about Matty Ice ripping up the Panther secondary. Falcons 29, Panthers 24.
Chicago (+7) at Minnesota (46.5): You know, the Vikings might actually be pretty damned good next year. And the Bears might have a new quarterback, coach AND GM. Vikings 24, Bears 19.
San Diego (+2.5) at Kansas City (42): Philip Rivers will make this happen. Chargers 26, Chiefs 14.
Philadelphia (PK) at NY Giants (52): Giants 26, Eagles 23.
Dallas (-6) at Washington (48): The Racists will be fired up after a big win last week. Cowboys 23, Racists 20.
New Orleans (-5.5) at Tampa Bay (46.5): Sean Payton for Jim Harbaugh? Christ, I wouldn't wish that on the Saints. Buccaneers 24, Saints 23.
St. Louis (+11.5) at Seattle (41.5): The Rams always play tough in their own division. Classic backdoor cover situation, too. Seahawks 23, Rams 13.
Arizona (+6.5) at San Francisco (37.5): Damn it, go get Matt Schaub! 49ers 21, Cardinals 17.
Oakland (+14) at Denver (48): The Broncos are pretty banged up. The Raiders are on the road. Brnocos 34, Raiders 22.

Lock of the Week: Oakland
Trifecta: Oakland, Pittsburgh, Atlanta

Thursday, December 18, 2014

The Hoser's 2014 NFL Picks, Week 16, Thursday Edition

You aren't seriously thinking about watching this game, are you? Seek help now.

Tennessee (+4.5) at JACKSONVILLE (39): Jaguars 24, Titans 16.

Sunday, December 14, 2014

The Hoser's 2014 NFL Picks, Week 15 Edition

I've fallen below .500 for the first time this season after two horrendous weeks. Good thing I'm heading out with the family to Eva's Deli in Barrie, ON for brunch schnitzel and pancakes!

Oakland (+10.5) at Kansas City (41.5): This would be perfect, wouldn't it? Oakland wins out and fools itself into thinking they aren't actually THAT bad. Chiefs 23, Raiders 14.
Jacksonville (+13.5) at Baltimore (45): Garbage time equals cover time. Ravens 30, Jaguars 17.
Pittsburgh (-3) at Atlanta (55.5): It's Mike Tomlin's thousand-yard stare vs. Mike Smith sarcastic smirk. Steelers 27, Falcons 23.
Houston (+7) at Indianapolis (49): The power of the Watt is strong! Colts 24, Texans 22.
Cincinnati (+2.5) at Cleveland (43.5): Here comes Johnny Manziel! There go the Browns' playoff chances! Bengals 26, Browns 16.
Miami (+8) at New England (48): Beautiful New England, where Dolphin fans and their dreams go to die. Patriots 30, Dolphins 20.
Tampa Bay (+3) at Carolina (41.5): Yeah, even without Cam Newton. Panthers 20, Buccaneers 16.
Washington (+6.5) at NY Giants (46.5): The problem with this game is ... someone will win. Giants 26, Racists 17.
Green Bay (-4) at Buffalo (50): If the Bills get the right weather and keep the ball on the ground, they can lose by only a touchdown. Packers 27, Bills 20.
Minnesota (+7.5) at Detroit (42): The Vikings have been pretty damned good for the last two months. How about a shocker? Vikings 24, Lions 23.
NY Jets (-3) at Tennessee (42): I would pay $10 to see someone in the crowd wearing a "WE MISS SANCHEZ" jersey. Titans 22, Jets 20.
Denver (-4.5) at San Diego (51): Peyton hasn't looked like Peyton for a few weeks now. Another shocker? Nope. Broncos 30, Chargers 23.
San Francisco (+9.5) at Seattle (38): It's hard to figure how Colin Kaepernick will effectively led this offense from underneath the bus 49ers fans have thrown him under. Seahawks 26, 49ers 16.
Dallas (+3.5) at Philadephia (55): Get in early, NFL franchises -- Jason Garrett will be available for dating in about three weeks. Eagles 29, Cowboys 24.
New Orleans (-3) at Chicago (54): Can you imagine how excited the folks at MNF were to have this game before the season started? Now, a nice primetime tire fire. Saints 31, Bears 21.

Lock of the Week: Green Bay
Trifecta: Minnesota, Cincinnati, Green Bay

2014 Week 14

Lock of the Week: 0-1
Trifecta: 0-1
ATS: 6-10
SU: 9-7
Total $: -840

2014 Season Totals

Lock of the Week: 3-11
Trifecta: 0-14
ATS: 102-104-2
SU: 129-78-1
Total $: -$4,540 

Thursday, December 11, 2014

The Hoser's 2014 NFL Picks, Week 15 Thursday Edition

Arizona (+5.5) at St. Louis (40.5): The Rams have been playing extremely well of late, but of course it's been against absolutely shitty teams. I mean, c'mon -- Oakland and Washington? My junior varsity team could have stayed with them for at least three quarters. I like Arizona to win, but the Cardinal defense keeps this close. Rams 22, Cardinals 19.

Sunday, December 7, 2014

The Hoser's 2014 NFL Picks, Week 14 Edition

Just the scores this week, for the most part.

Houston (-5.5) at Jacksonville (42): -5.5 is also the O/U on number of sacks J.J. Watts gets. Texans 24, Jaguars 20.
NY Giants (-1) at Tennessee (46): The true measure of suckiness is being a home dog to the freaking Giants. Giants 26, Titans 17.
Tampa Bay (+10) at Detroit (41.5): I'm not saying the Buccaneers are going to win this game, but a 10-point spread in a game with an O/U of 41.5 is pretty damn big. Lions 24, Buccaneers 16.
St. Louis (-3) at Washington (44): Put your hands up ... if you would have been fired from your job for making a public statement without the approval of your boss. Rams 26, Racists 20.
Buffalo (+10) at Denver (47.5): You know you think your team is pretty damned superior when you can waste a roster spot on a kicker who only kicks off. Broncos 37, Bills 20.
Kansas City (-1) at Arizona (40): Do you think the Cardinals have thought about trying to trade for Ryan Fitzpatrick or Matt Schaub? Stop laughing -- I'm serious. I like Drew Stanton, but this is a hell of a trial by fire for him. Wouldn't it be worth a draft pick or two to get a proven QB in for the stretch run and the playoffs? Chiefs 20, Cardinals 16.
San Francisco (-8) at Oakland (41): Call this the "Get Acquainted With Your New Home, Coach Harbaugh" game. 49ers 30, Raiders 21.
New York Jets (+5.5) at Minnesota (40): Vikings 26, Jets 20.
Carolina (+9.5) at New Orleans (50): Saints 31, Panthers 17.
Baltimore (+3) at Miami (46): Dolphins 23, Ravens 21.
Pittsburgh (+3) at Cincinnati (47.5): Bengals 31, Steelers 21.
Indianapolis (-3.5) at Cleveland (50): Colts 26, Browns 20.
Seattle (+1.5) at Philadephia (48.5): Eagles 27, Seahawks 20.
New England (-3.5) at San Diego (52): Patriots 30, Chargers 24.
Atlanta (+13) at Green Bay (56): Packers 34, Falcons 23.

Lock of the Week: Cincinnati
Trifecta: Minnesota, Cincinnati, Indianapolis

2014 Week 13

Lock of the Week: 0-1
Trifecta: 0-1
ATS: 4-12
SU: 10-6
Total $: -1,280

2014 Season Totals

Lock of the Week: 3-10
Trifecta: 0-13
ATS: 96-94-2
SU: 120-71-1
Total $: -$3,700 

Thursday, December 4, 2014

The Hoser's Week 14 NFL Picks, Thursday Edition

Dallas (-3.5) at CHICAGO (51.5): It's a trap, but I'm betting Jay Cutler and his Groot-like receivers tear up the Dallas secondary. Also, Tony Romo sucks. Bears 29, Cowboys 23.

Sunday, November 30, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 13, 2014

The Hoser is 2-1 against the spread and straight up after Thanksgiving. Damn you, Tony Romo!

Washington (+9) at Indianapolis (50): Colts 28, Racists 20.
Tennessee (+7) at Houston (42.5): Texans 24, Titans 20.
Cleveland (+3) at Buffalo (41.5): Bills 23, Browns 20.
San Diego (+6.5) at Baltimore (46): Ravens 27, Chargers 19.
NY Giants (-3) at Jacksonville (44): Giants 26, Jaguars 20.
Cincinnati (-5.5) at Tampa Bay (43.5): Bengals 29, Buccaneers 20.
Oakland (+6) at St. Louis (42.5): Rams 24, Raiders 23.
New Orleans (+3.5) at Pittsburgh (53.5): Steelers 30, Saints 20.
Carolina (+2.5) at Minnesota (41): Vikings 21, Panthers 20.
Arizona (-2) at Atlanta (45): I'm pulling for the Cardinals, but we may be asking just a bit too much of Drew Stanton. Then again, they are playing an NFC South team. Cardinals 24, Falcons 21.
New England (+3) at Green Bay (57): Patriots 29, Packers 26.
Denver (+1) at Kansas City (49): Broncos 27, Chiefs 23.
Miami (-7) at NY Jets (42): Dolphins 26, Jets 16.

Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh
Trifecta: Pittsburgh, Miami, New England

Thursday, November 27, 2014

The Hoser's Week 13 NFL Picks, Thursday (Thanksgiving) Edition

Like your body after stuffing yourself with turkey and pie, my momentum is now gone. I struggled to a 6-9 week against the spread and lost the Trifecta and the Lock (c'mon, Larry Fitzgerald would have DEFINITELY been worth two touchdowns).

Happy Thanksgiving to all my friends in the U.S. Remember to tell your family you love them and be thankful for what you have -- which is the day off to watch football!

Chicago (+7) at DETROIT (46.5): The Lions' offense has not been bad the past few weeks -- it's been stinkier than that bag of leftover green bean casserole you found at the back of the fridge last February. Still, we're talking about the Bears here, who hand out points like Santa hands out gifts. Lions 30, Bears 19.
Philadelphia (+3) at DALLAS (56): If you asked Cowboys fans which they thought was a crappier play by a quarterback, the Buttfumble or Tony Romo dropping that extra point, I don't know which they'd pick. I'd take Sanchez there, but I can't take him in this game. Cowboys 31, Eagles 27.
Seattle (+1.5) at SAN FRANCISCO (40): This one's tighter than your pants tonight. Oddsmakers think the Seahawks are the better team, and with Marshawn in full #BeastMode, I have to agree. Is it enough on the road? Yes. Yes it is. Seahawks 22, 49ers 20.

2014 Week 12

Lock of the Week: 0-1
Trifecta: 0-1
ATS: 6-9
SU: 11-4
Total $: -790

2014 Season Totals

Lock of the Week: 3-9
Trifecta: 0-12
ATS: 92-82-2
SU: 110-65-1
Total $: -$2,420 

Sunday, November 23, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 12, 2014

Just the picks -- busted car again.

Cleveland (+3) at Atlanta (48): Browns 24, Falcons 22.
Tennessee (+11.5) at Philadelphia (49): Eagles 30, Titans 20.
Detroit (+7) at New England (48): Patriots 23, Lions 17.
Green Bay (-8) at Minnesota (49.5): Packers 27, Vikings 20.
Jacksonville (+13.5) at Indianapolis (50): Colts 30, Jaguars 17.
Cincinnati (+2.5) at Houston (44): Texans 24, Bengals 23.
Tampa Bay (+4) at Chicago (45.5): Bears 24, Buccaneers 21.
Arizona (+7) at Seattle (41.5): Cardinals 22, Seahawks 19.
St. Louis (+5.5) at San Diego (43.5): Rams 22, Chargers 20.
Miami (+6.5) at Denver (48): Broncos 27, Dolphins 20.
Washington (+9) at San Francisco (44): 49ers 30, Racists 13.
Dallas (-4) at New York Giants (47): Cowboys 30, Giants 20.
Baltimore (+3) at New Orleans (50): Ravens 26, Saints 24.
New York Jets (+2.5) at Buffalo (Detroit) (41.5): Bills 23, Jets 19.

Lock of the Week: Arizona
Trifecta: Arizona. Dallas, Jacksonville

Thursday, November 20, 2014

The Hoser's Week 12 NFL Picks, Thursday Edition

In the "damned-near impossible to do, but by God, I did it" category, I was a sparkling 11-3 last week against the spread, and still managed to blow the Lock of the Week and the Trifecta. In other galling news, Indianapolis cost me three-team and six-team parlays which would have paid $130 on $8 worth of tickets.

Upon further review, Ryan Womeldorf of Two Pad Stack (yeah, it's a hockey site, what of it?) called me out for being an utter moron for taking Indy when New England has clearly been the better team the past umpteen weeks. In my defense, well ... there isn't one. I thought it would take Bill Belichick another week or two to work Jonas Gray into the offense rather than him suddenly becoming Jim Freaking Brown.

By the way, doesn't that name - Jonas Gray - sound like the normal moniker of some caped superhero? I bet it does to the Colts.

Tonight's contest is below. See you on Sunday!

Kansas City (-7.5) at OAKLAND (42.5): You know it's bad when the Raider fan base is calling for the return of ... Hue Jackson? Wow, folks, set your sights a bit higher. Chiefs 23, Raiders 16.

2014 Week 11

Lock of the Week: 0-1
Trifecta: 0-1
ATS: 11-3
SU: 7-7
Total $: +$370

2014 Season Totals

Lock of the Week: 3-8
Trifecta: 0-11
ATS: 86-73-2
SU: 99-61-1
Total $: -$1,630 

Sunday, November 16, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 11, 2014

We're 1-0 on both counts after getting the Dolphins/Bills tilt right. 

Houston (+3.5) at Cleveland (41): There has to be someone at NASA working on cloning J.J. Watts 52 more times. Browns 23, Texans 20.
Minnesota (+2.5) at Chicago (46): So Adrian Peterson didn't show up for his disciplinary hearing? Who's advising him -- Dewey, Cheatum & Howe? Bears 22, Vikings 16.
Detroit (+1) at Arizona (41.5): Tough week for a back-up to step in, but I'm humming that old Sound of Music tune -- "I have confidence in Drew!" Cardinals 23, Lions 20.
New England (+3) at Indianapolis (58): Please, God, let Vinatieri win it with a 50-yarder at the gun. Colts 31, Patriots 23.
Atlanta (-1) at Carolina (47): At halftime, Green Day will come out and play "Boulevard of Broken Dreams." Falcons 24, Panthers 21.
Cincinnati (+7) at New Orleans (50.5): And then Green Day will fly to ... Saints 31, Bengals 26.
Oakland (+10) at San Diego (44.5): If Marc Davis sells the Raiders, then THAT will tell you the baseline for the value of an NFL franchise. I've got a G-note. Chargers 29, Raiders 17.
Pittsburgh (-6) at Tennessee (47): God help me, I have to root for Roethlisberger this week. Steelers 31, Titans 17. Philadelphia (+5.5) at Green Bay (55): Mark Sanchez vs. Aaron Rodgers. Hmmm. Packers 31, Eagles 23.
Denver (-9.5) at St. Louis (51): Don't know who's starting at QB for the Rams? No worries -- neither does Jeff Fisher. Broncos 26, Rams 19.
San Francisco (-4) at NY Giants (44.5): Here come the goddamned 49ers. 49ers 26, Giants 17.
Seattle (+1.5) at Kansas City (42): Chiefs 24, Seahawks 20.
Tampa Bay (+7.5) at Washington (45.5): Racists 23, Buccaneers 20.

Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh
Trifecta: Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Indianapolis,

2014 Week 10

Lock of the Week: 1-0
Trifecta: 0-1
ATS: 6-7
SU: 10-3
Total $: +$240

2014 Season Totals

Lock of the Week: 3-7
Trifecta: 0-10
ATS: 75-70-2
SU: 92-54-1
Total $: -$2,000

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 Wrap

2014 Week 10

Lock of the Week: 1-0
Trifecta: 0-1
ATS: 6-7
SU: 10-3
Total $: +$240

2014 Season Totals

Lock of the Week: 3-7
Trifecta: 0-10
ATS: 75-70-2
SU: 92-54-1
Total $: -$2,000 

Sunday, November 9, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 10, 2014

Dallas (-7.5) at Jacksonville (45): Cowboys 27, Jaguars 16.
Miami (+2.5) at Detroit (43.5): Dolphins 24, Lions 22.
Kansas City (-2) at Buffalo (41.5): Bills 20, Chiefs 19.
San Francisco (-5) at New Orleans (49): Saints 27, 49ers 23.
Tennessee (+9.5) at Baltimore (44): Ravens 31, Titans 13.
New York Jets (+4.5) at Pittsburgh (45.5): Steelers 30, Jets 17.
Atlanta (-2.5) at Tampa Bay (46): Falcons 19, Buccaneers 13.
Denver (-11.5) at Oakland (49): Broncos 34, Raiders 21.
St. Louis (+7) at Arizona (43): Cardinals 26, Rams 20.
New York Giants (+9) at Seattle (44.5): Seahawks 24, Giants 23.
Chicago (+7.5) at Green Bay (53.5): Packers 29, Bears 20.
Carolina (+6.5) at Philadelphia (48): Eagles 26, Panthers 22.

Lock of the Week: Atlanta
Trifecta: Atlanta, New Orleans, New York Giants

Thursday, November 6, 2014

The Hoser's Week 10 NFL Picks, Thursday Edition

Just the pick tonight and this week, as it's the Canadian Sportcard Expo in Toronto this weekend and I'm swamped. I will, however, be meeting Trish Stratus tomorrow night. Save your applause.

Cleveland (+6.5) at Cincinnati (45.5): Ahh, those scrappy Browns ... are going to get smoked by the more talented Bengals.

2014 Week Nine

Lock of the Week: 1-0
Trifecta: 0-1
ATS: 6-7
SU: 8-5
Total $:+290

2014 Season Totals

Lock of the Week: 2-7
Trifecta: 0-9
ATS: 69-63-2
SU: 82-51-1
Total $: -$2,240    

Sunday, November 2, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week Nine, 2014

Welcome to Week Nine of the 2014 edition of the Football Hoser's NFL picks, where my inability to pick a winner rivals Larry King's inability to pick a wife.

I had a decent week against the spread, finishing 8-7 (and 9-6 straight up), but not only did I miss the Lock of the Week, I missed ALL THREE Trifecta games. I believe a friend of mine said he planned to pick the exact opposite of my picks, so if you did, Chris, you owe me lunch.

The finish of that Falcons/Lions game in London set the possibility of the NFL setting up shop overseas back about 50 years. I mean, the Lions iced their own kicker.

As always, remember: these picks are for fun. Using these picks to make actual bets is as advisable as donating money to the Red Cross.

San Diego (+2) at Miami (45): Not a huge fan of the Dolphins, but also not a huge fan of flying all the way across the country. Dolphins 24, Chargers 20.
Jacksonville (+10.5) at Cincinnati (43.5): Bengals 30, Jaguars 13.
Tampa Bay (+7) at Cleveland (43.5): I should have told you all I had Doug Martin on my fantasy team. He's lucky to be alive. Browns 23, Buccaneers 14.
Washington (+1) at Minnesota (43.5): I saw a guy walking around at a hockey game last night wearing a Racists coat. Who the hell is that oblivious? Racists 24, Vikings 20.
Houston (+1.5) at Philadelphia (48.5): Eagles 27, Texans 23.
New York Jets (+9) at Kansas City (42): MICHAELVICKGENOSMITHROFLMAOLOLBBQ. Chiefs 24, Jets 17.
Arizona (PK) at Dallas (44): With Romo out, that should mean more DeMarco Murray, except, how could they possibly use Murray more? Cardinals 26, Cowboys 23.
St. Louis (+9.5) at San Francisco (44): You can't run special-teams tricks every week. 49ers 30, Rams 17.
Denver (-3) at New England (54): I would really love it if Manning and Brady each went out in his first series. Broncos 31, Patriots 30.
Oakland (+14) at Seattle (43): Ah, the Raiders -- the NFL's get-well card. Seahawks 30, Raiders 17.
Baltimore (-1) at Pittsburgh (47.5): Why yes, I did have Roethlisberger on my bench last week. Shut up. Ravens 23, Steelers 20.
Indianapolis (-3) at NY Giants (50.5): Colts 27, Giants 23.

Lock of the Week: Arizona
Trifecta: Arizona, Cleveland, Oakland

2014 Week Eight

Lock of the Week: 0-1
Trifecta: 0-1
ATS: 8-7
SU: 9-6
Total $: -330

2014 Season Totals

Lock of the Week: 1-7
Trifecta: 0-8
ATS: 63-56-2
SU: 74-46-1
Total $: -$2,530   

Sunday, October 26, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week Eight, 2014

Welcome to Week Eight of the 2014 edition of the Football Hoser's NFL picks, where I plummeted back to earth with a thud worthy of a stoned Nate Newton falling out of a BarcoLounger.

I was a miserable 5-10 against the spread, missing both the Lock and the Trifecta. A solid 10-5 straight up does nothing to alleviate the pain.

This will just be picks this week, but check out this interesting look at how you should be betting from Grantland chief Bill Simmons (welcome back from lots of golf, Billy!). He argues your picks should based not on just wins, but by ranking the quality of play ... well, just go see for yourself.

As always, remember: these picks are for fun. Using these picks to make actual bets is as advisable as trying to foist shitty football on foreigners.

Detroit (-3.5) vs. (In London) Atlanta (45.5): Lions 26, Falcons 16.
Minnesota (+2.5) at TAMPA BAY (43): Buccaneers 23, Vikings 17.
Chicago (+6) at NEW ENGLAND (51): Patriots 31, Bears 24.
St. Louis (+7) at KANSAS CITY (44): Chiefs 30, Rams 20.
Seattle (-5.5) at CAROLINA (44.5): Panthers 24, Seahawks 20.
Buffalo (+3) at NEW YORK JETS (41): Bills 23, Jets 16.
Miami (-6) at JACKSONVILLE (42): Dolphins 26, Jaguars 17.
Houston (-3.5) at TENNESSEE (42): A rookie quarterback against Ryan Fitzpatrick. I pick J.J. Watts. 23, Titans 20.
Baltimore (-2) at CINCINNATI (45): Ravens 29, Bengals 17.
Philadelphia (+1.5) at ARIZONA (48): About as dead even as you can get. Cardinals 26, Eagles 23.
Indianapolis (-3.5) at PITTSBURGH (49): Colts 31, Steelers 20.
Oakland (+6.5) at CLEVELAND (43.5): Browns 28, Raiders 13.
Green Bay (+2) at NEW ORLEANS (55.5): Packers 33, Saints 27.
Washington (+10) at DALLAS (49.5): Cowboys 26, Redskins 17.

Lock of the Week: Baltimore
Trifecta: Baltimore, Green Bay, Indianapolis

2014 Week Seven

Lock of the Week: 0-1
Trifecta: 0-1
ATS: 5-10
SU: 10-5
Total $: -950

2014 Season Totals

Lock of the Week: 1-6
Trifecta: 0-7
ATS: 55-49-2
SU: 65-40-1
Total $: -$2,200  

Thursday, October 23, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 8, 2014 -- Thursday Edition

San Diego (+9) at DENVER (51): I think this line is about right, but Philip Rivers has an excellent track record against the Broncos, even at Mile High, where he's 6-2. He's locked in this season, and the Broncos defense hasn't been that impressive. I think the Broncos still win this one, but it's a field goal or so. Broncos 27, Chargers 23.

Sunday, October 19, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week Seven, 2014

Welcome to Week Seven of the 2014 edition of the Football Hoser's NFL picks, where a double shift Saturday and a rare Sunday store opening means a short Hoser.

It was another solid week in Week Six, as I posted a 9-6 against the spread record and 10-4-1 straight up. That last number comes courtesy of Bengals kicker Mike Nugent schtoinking a 36-yard last-second attempt against Carolina, which drew the ire of Cincy CB Adam "Pac-Man" Jones, and you know things are bad when that upstanding citizen feels free to call you out.

The Jets also had a late field-goal try go awry Thursday night against the Patriots, but you can forgive Nick Folk for blasting it a little low from 58 yards. New York still got us the cover, so I'm 1-0 this week.

As always, remember: these picks are for fun. Using these picks to make actual bets is as advisable as trying those canned chicken and dumplings from the dollar store.

Tennessee (+6) at WASHINGTON (46): You know you suck when you're getting nearly a touchdown against a team on a five-game losing streak. Racists 26, Titans 16.
Miami (+3) at CHICAGO (48.5): A strong Bears pass rush equals a long day for Ryan Tannehill. Bears 24, Dolphins 17.
Seattle (-6.5) at ST. LOUIS (43.5): The Seahawks pulled off a stunner this week, trading wide receiver Percy Harvin to the Jets for the equivalent of a bag of dirty jocks. Word is Harvin has anger management issues, so this is a Lorena Bobbitt solution -- hoping the situation improves by removing a dick. Seahawks 26, Rams 20.
Carolina (+6.5) at GREEN BAY (49.5): The Panther defense has given up 34 points a game since Greg Hardy was removed from the team. They sure miss him -- but I bet his ex-girlfriend doesn't. Packers 29, Panthers 26.
Atlanta (+6.5) at BALTIMORE (50): The Falcons are about as stable as Amanda Bynes. Ravens 27, Falcons 20.
Minnesota (+5.5) at BUFFALO (42.5): The Vikings' big plan is apparently to get Matt Asiata more involved this week. That's quite the dynamic coaching staff Minnesota's got up there, huh? Bills 23, Vikings 16.
New Orleans (+2.5) at DETROIT (47): With the line under a field goal, much of this hinges on whether Jimmy Graham suits up. In other words, stay away. (This pick assumes he plays sparingly.) Lions 26, Saints 22.
New York Giants (+6.5) at DALLAS (48): The Cowboys announced this week Pit Bull will play a concert at this year's Thanksgiving game, because nothing says family and giving thanks like weak-assed rap. Cowboys 31, Giants 27.
Arizona (-3.5) at OAKLAND (44.5): Cardinals 26, Raiders 20.
San Francisco (+6.5) at DENVER (50): Broncos 27, 49ers 23.
Houston (+3) at PITTSBURGH (44.5): Steelers 24, Texans 23.
Cincinnati (+3) at INDIANAPOLIS (49.5): Colts 27, Bengals 23.
Kansas City (+4) at SAN DIEGO (45): Chargers 26, Chiefs 20.
Cleveland (-5.5) at JACKSONVILLE (45): Browns 29, Jaguars 17.

Lock of the Week: San Diego
Trifecta: San Diego, Cleveland, Buffalo

2014 Week Six

Lock of the Week: 0-1
Trifecta: 0-1
ATS: 9-6
SU: 10-4-1
Total $: -330

2014 Season Totals

Lock of the Week: 1-5
Trifecta: 0-6
ATS: 50-39-2
SU: 55-35-1
Total $: -$1,250 

Thursday, October 16, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 7, 2014 -- Thursday Edition

New York Jets (+9.5) at NEW ENGLAND (44.5): I have no good reason to think the Jets will make a game of this, but I do -- at least to get the margin down to single digits. There have to be a number of guys fighting for their lives in New York, the least of which might be skinny-assed Rex Ryan. Expect a few Gostkowski field goals as the Jets stiffen near the goal line. Patriots 26, Jets 17.

2014 Week Six

Lock of the Week: 0-1
Trifecta: 0-1
ATS: 9-6
SU: 10-4-1
Total $: -330

2014 Season Totals

Lock of the Week: 1-5
Trifecta: 0-6
ATS: 50-39-2
SU: 55-35-1
Total $: -$1,250

Sunday, October 12, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week Six, 2014

Welcome to Week Six of the 2014 edition of the Football Hoser's NFL picks, where thanks to Thanksgiving and an exploding minivan (don't ask), it's the down and dirty this week.

It was our best week of the season in Week Five, piling up an 11-4 against the spread record and 13-2 straight up. It took me a long way back toward even for the season, but I still didn't win any money on ProLine. I'm already down one after the Texans couldn't quite complete the comeback Thursday night.

As always, remember: these picks are for fun. Using these picks to make actual bets is as advisable as being a major-league umpire and not understanding what a balk is.

Denver (-9.5) at NEW YORK JETS (48): I think if you smashed Michael Vick and Geno Smith together ... Geno Smith would get a venereal disease. Broncos 31, Jets 19.
Jacksonville (+4) at TENNESSEE (42.5): Not yet, Jaguars, not yet. Titans 23, Jaguars 20.
Chicago (+3) at ATLANTA (54.5): This one's at the Georgia Dome, so the Falcons should win by 50 and Matt Ryan will be the Second Coming. Falcons 30, Bears 23.
Green Bay (-2.5) at MIAMI (49): The Double-Check Discount Train is now rolling, and the Dolphins are laying on the track. Packers 29, Dolphins 22.
Detroit (+2) at MINNESOTA (43.5): Megatron is doubtful, but I'm not doubtful Detroit can win on the road. The Lions discover their running game. Lions 21, Vikings 19.
Carolina (+7) at CINCINNATI (43.5): Do the Bengals bounce back from the spanking they got last week? Against the Panthers, they sure do. Bengals 26, Panthers 17.
New England (-2.5) at BUFFALO (45): See the Packers game above. Patriots 30, Bills 17.
San Diego (-7) at OAKLAND (43): All the talk about Jon Gruden coming back to coach the Raiders makes me think of this as the necessary answer to who can solve Oakland's problems. Chargers 33, Raiders 16.
Dallas (+8.5) at SEATTLE (47): Wait, I thought the Cowboys were the '72 Dolphins? Seahawks 26, Cowboys 20.
Washington (+4.5) at ARIZONA (45.5): Charley Trippi might be starting at quarterback for Arizona. Cardinals 24, Racists 20.
New York Giants (+2.5) at PHILADELPHIA (50.5): This is where the Eagles collapse. Giants 27, Eagles 23.
San Francisco (-3.5) at ST. LOUIS (44): I believe in Austin Davis! (Just not enough to pull this game out.) 49ers 26, Rams 21.
Pittsburgh (+1) at CLEVELAND (47): Browns 23, Steelers 20.
Baltimore (-3.5) at TAMPA BAY (43.5): Ravens 27, Buccaneers 20.

Lock of the Week: San Diego
Trifecta: San Diego, Green Bay, New England

2014 Week Five

Lock of the Week: 1-0
Trifecta: 0-1
ATS: 11-4
SU: 13-2
Total $: $1,170

2014 Season Totals

Lock of the Week: 1-4
Trifecta: 0-5
ATS: 41-33-2
SU: 45-31
Total $: -$920

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

The Football Hoser's Week Five 2014 Wrap-up

I had my first big week of the year (sort of -- more on that in a minute). I was 11-4 against the spread and 13-2 straight up, which is by far my best performance of the season, and might have been my best record ATS in a couple years.

I also was finally able to hit a Lock of the Week, as San Diego made the Jets look like, well, the Jets. Unfortunately, I was wrong on both Arizona and Cincy in the Trifecta, but baby steps, right? Just like the NFL and getting rid of guys who hit women.

Stay tuned for the Thursday night pick!

2014 Week Five

Lock of the Week: 1-0
Trifecta: 0-1
ATS: 11-4
SU: 13-2
Total $: $1,170

2014 Season Totals

Lock of the Week: 1-4
Trifecta: 0-5
ATS: 41-33-2
SU: 45-31
Total $: -$920

Sunday, October 5, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week Five, 2014

Welcome to Week Five of the 2014 edition of the Football Hoser's NFL picks, where it's a quickie this week.

We were again right around .500 on our picks against the spread, which is another way of saying lousy. You could just as easily be throwing darts, or having monkey fling crap at a chart. Come to think of it ... *runs off to check availability of*

We finished at 6-7 for the ATS and a reasonable 8-5 straight up, but once again, we could not pinpoint a single game to make the Lock of the Week. That makes us 0-4 for Locks for the season. It's like Elizabeth Taylor picking husbands.

As always, remember: these picks are for fun. Using these picks to make actual bets is as advisable as not planning out your bridesmaid photos very well.

Houston (+6.5) at Dallas (46.5): If I were Jason Garrett, I'd tell Tony Romo every time he throws an ill-advised pass, he has to kneel down and take a picture next to Jerry Jones' junk. Cowboys 26, Texans 20.
Buffalo (+6.5) at DETROIT (43.5): Because who doesn't want a Dave Grohl lookalike under centre? Lions 24, Bills 20.
Pittsburgh (-6) at JACKSONVILLE (47): I hope the Jaguars fight as hard as Ben Affleck did. I mean, Ben's full of shit on this, but still. Steelers 23, Jaguars 19.
Arizona (+7.5) at DENVER (48): Carson Palmer returns just in time to get the Cardinals' first loss hung on him. Broncos 26, Cardinals 21.
Cincinnati (-1) at NEW ENGLAND (46): This is either going to be the moment Bill Belichick proves his genius beyond measure, or the moment we realize the Patriots are done. I choose the latter. Bengals 27, Patriots 16.
Seattle (-7) at WASHINGTON (45): For some perspective on this game, be sure to find last week's South Park episode "Go Fund Yourself." I'm still chuckling. Seahawks 26, Racists 17.
Chicago (+2.5) at CAROLINA (45.5): Panthers 24, Bears 20.
Cleveland (+1.5) at TENNESSEE (44): Browns 23, Titans 19.
St. Louis (+6.5) at PHILADELPHIA (48): Eagles 31, Rams 21.
Atlanta (+4) at NEW YORK GIANTS (50.5): Giants 30, Falcons 23.
Tampa Bay (+10) at NEW ORLEANS (48): Saints 31, Buccaneers 22.
Kansas City (+5.5) at SAN FRANCISCO (44): 49ers 24, Chiefs 20.
New York Jets (+6.5) at SAN DIEGO (43.5): Chargers 27, Jets 17.
Baltimore (+3.5) at INDIANAPOLIS (49): Colts 26, Ravens 20.
Lock of the Week: San Diego
Trifecta: San Diego, Philadelphia, Cincinnati

2014 Week Four

Lock of the Week: 0-1
Trifecta: 0-1
ATS: 6-7
SU: 8-5
Total $: -$770

2014 Season Totals

Lock of the Week: 0-4
Trifecta: 0-4
ATS: 30-29-2
SU: 32-29
Total $: -$2,090

Thursday, October 2, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 5, 2014 -- Thursday Edition

Minnesota (+9) at GREEN BAY (46.5) This pick comes down to how much you believe. If you believe the Packers have their offensive mojo back, then a double-digit victory is not out of the question. If you believe the Vikings can win convincingly with Christian Ponder replacing the injured Teddy Bridgewater, then ... you're nuts.

Packers 31. Vikings 20.

Sunday, September 28, 2014

The Football Hoser's 2014 Week 4 ProLine Sunday Update

Our Trifecta this week is New Orleans, Chicago and Atlanta. The Saints (our lock) stays the same at -3 over Dallas, making this a great game to add to parlay tickets. The Bears slide from +2 to +1.5 against the Packers, but we have Chicago outright anyway.

The killer here is Atlanta moving from -3 to -3.5 on the road in Minnesota. The Falcons travel like unrefrigerated milk, and the Vikings are not only starting Teddy Bridgewater, but have had a couple weeks to regroup and figure out life without ADP. If you wanted to bail on this game with it off the field goal, I'd understand.

Other movers of note:

* Detroit is all the way to -3 from -1.5 over the Jets. That's a little high on the road.
* Pittsburgh has climbed to -9 from -7.5 over Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers can't be as bad as they were last week, can they? Still, even having Doug Martin back won't mean much.

Good luck this week!

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week Four, 2014

Welcome to Week Four of the 2014 edition of the Football Hoser's NFL picks, where it's nice to know while people starve, Corona is building giant mirrors to banish shade from patios.

Last week was an acceptable 9-7 against the spread and straight up, but once again we blew the Lock of the Week. It's tough to figure how Carolina went so far south in one week, but the simplest answers might be that Cam Newton is more banged up than we know and not having Greg Hardy affects the Panther D mightily.

There's an excellent piece at Grantland this week by Andrew Sharp about Eagles DB Cary Williams, who called out the Philly coaching staff for practicing them too hard. Williams, who as of yet has not had his words turned into a rap anthem by DJ Steve Porter, may have a point, as he has been apparently been backed up anonymously by other Eagles. Check out that piece.

Our cash outlay will change as the byes start this week. The Lock of the Week will jump from $300 to $500 to keep the bets at an even $2K per week. So, yeah, there's me throwing another $200 in the crapper. Wasn't I just bitching about Corona?

As always, remember: these picks are for fun. Using these picks to make actual bets is as advisable as being stranded on an island with John Rocker.

Miami (-3.5) at OAKLAND (40.5): A three-hour sonogram of Pippa's belly might be more entertaining than this. Dolphins 23, Raiders 17.
Green Bay (-2) at CHICAGO (51.5): The Packers offense may be a shambles, but I can say nothing bad about Aaron Rodgers as long as he is getting Hans and Franz work. Bears 26, Packers 23.
Buffalo (+3) at HOUSTON (41): Speaking of State Farm commercials, apparently a second commercial featuring Rob Schneider as the "Makin' Copies" guy has been pulled because he is a serious anti-vaccination guy. I guess I understand that, but would anyone actually make decisions about their children's health based on what Deuce Bigalow recommends? Texans 22, Bills 20.
Tennessee (+8) at INDIANAPOLIS (46): We're getting closer and closer to Clipboard Jesus taking the field. Can I get an AMEN! Colts 30, Titans 17.
Tampa Bay (+7.5) at PITTSBURGH (45): This only looks like a total mismatch because it is. Steelers 31, Buccaneers 20.
Jacksonville (+13) at SAN DIEGO (45): The Chargers are missing a large number of players due to injury. Fortunately for them, Jacksonville is missing an entire franchise. Chargers 34, Jaguars 16.
Atlanta (-3) at MINNESOTA (47): The Falcons travel about as well as the French army, but I like this at least as a push. Falcons 24, Vikings 16.
Philadelphia (+4.5) at SAN FRANCISCO (50.5): The Eagles are the worst 3-0 team in history, while the 49ers have to figure out second halves at some point. Still, more than a field goal ... 49ers 26, Eagles 24.
Carolina (+3.5) at BALTIMORE (40.5): Is it possible, given everything that's happened this year, that the Ravens could overtake Washington as the NFL's most hated franchise? Has that already happened? Ravens 22, Panthers 20.
Detroit (-1.5) at NEW YORK JETS (44): I had a nice conversation with a diehard Jets fan this week. In Canada. So there may be a Santa Claus after all. Lions 23, Jets 17.
New Orleans (-3) at DALLAS (53): Because there will efinitely be none on isplay in allas, I have compose this sentence with no "." Saints 31, Cowboys 24.
New England (-4) at KANSAS CITY (45): Beat writers for the Patriots are speculating Tom Brady has some sort of lower-leg injury that is keeping him from pushing off into his throws. It's his own damned fault -- those Ugh boots just offer no support. Patriots 24, Chiefs 21.

Lock of the Week: New Orleans
Trifecta: New Orleans, Chicago, Atlanta

2014 Week Three

Lock of the Week: 0-1
Trifecta: 0-1
ATS: 9-7
SU: 9-7
Total $: -$270

2014 Season Totals

Lock of the Week: 0-3
Trifecta: 0-3
ATS: 24-22-2
SU: 24-24
Total $: -$1,320

Thursday, September 25, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 4, 2014 -- Thursday Edition

New York Giants (+3.5) at WASHINGTON (46): Oh, if only the Giants could play a Ryan Fitzpatrick-helmed team every week. The man is good for what ails you.

Trent Dilfer's theory on how Fitzpatrick keeps landing starting jobs is a good one -- he's a placeholder quarterback who knows he'll be replaced before long by a young buck, and he has a track record of starting fast and tailing off. Dilfer says because Fitzpatrick is so smart, he wins games on brains, but team catch up and eventually his head writes cheques his talent can't cash. Pretty brilliant.

I think there has to be a bit of a slowdown for Kirk Cousins, even though he's clearly the better QB for the team recently destroyed by South Park. On the other side, I think Eli and Rashard Jennings are just heating up. Still, given Washington's at home, I think this one stays pretty tight.

Giants 26, Redskins 23.

Sunday, September 21, 2014

The Football Hoser's 2014 Week 3 ProLine Sunday Update

Just a quickie today:

My Lock of the Week, Carolina, stays at -3.5. In the Trifecta, Cincinnati stays at -7 and is a solid play for parlay tickets, but Indianapolis picks up the dreaded half-point to move to -7.5. I'm still giving the points, but it's a little scarier now.

Other moves to note:

* BUFFALO gains a full point, but it's below a field goal over San Diego, so not a big deal.
* ST. LOUIS goes from -1 to -3 over Dallas, which is nuts. Still good for parlays, but a two-point difference is very unusual.
* PHILADELPHIA moves on to the number at -7 against Washington. Again, not nearly as strong as it was at -6.5, but I'm taking the Racists and the points, so good for me.
* NEW ORLEANS also gains a full point to -11 against the Vikings, but that shouldn't affect anyone in this game.
* BALTIMORE goes from -1.5 to -2.5 against the Browns.
* DETROIT only gets -1.5 instead of -2.5 over Green Bay.
* NEW ENGLAND goes to above two touchdowns at -14.5 against Oakland. Still seems safe, but ...
* The JETS lose a point and a half to the Bears, now only a -1.5 favourite.

Good luck today!

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week Three, 2014

Welcome to Week Three of the 2014 edition of the Football Hoser's NFL picks, where I'm wondering who thought Iggy Azalea and J-Lo rubbing ass would be hot. That seems like a good way to catch something.

I heard someone on the radio today perfectly describe what I did in Week Two, and that was overreact. All of us (well, not the people winning money) tend to put too much stock in the games we've just watched rather than consider the long view of a team. That's doubly difficult to avoid early in the season, when we're all feeling our way.

Having said that, congratulations to Tampa Bay for Thursday night putting on the single sorriest excuse for an NFL game I have ever seen, which we saw coming. We got it straight up and against the spread, and the Buccaneers got it every which way including loose.

Remember, these picks are for fun. Using these picks to make actual bets is as advisable as hanging out in a University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee frat house.

Denver (+5) at SEATTLE (48.5): Think the Seahawks might be a little bit pissed off this week? I bet Pete Carroll even made his staff drink McDonald's coffee. Seahawks 27, Broncos 21.
Kansas City (+4) at MIAMI (42): There's a pretty good chance you'll see Larry Czonka in the Dolphin backfield this week. Still, with Jamaal Charles iffy ... Dolphins 22, Chiefs 20.
Pittsburgh (+3.5) at CAROLINA (41.5): In essence, this line says Vegas thinks the Steelers would be even with the Panthers at a neutral site. Uhhhh huh. Panthers 27, Steelers 16.
Chicago (+3) at NEW YORK JETS (45.5): When the Jets blow a lead like they did last week, it must be comforting to fans to be able to say, "Well, it least it wasn't the Buttfumble." Bears 23, Jets 20.
Indianapolis (-7) at JACKSONVILLE (45.5): This'll be uglier than John Goodman in a thong. Colts 34, Jaguars 16.
Oakland (+14) at NEW ENGLAND (46.5): The belief here must be that the Patriots will win 46.5-0. Patriots 31, Raiders 10.
San Francisco (-3) at ARIZONA (42): It looks like Carson Palmer is out again this week, and who would've thought that might be the difference between these two teams? 49ers 26, Cardinals 20.
San Diego (+2.5) at BUFFALO (45.5): I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think the Bills are for real. I'd still stay away from this game, though. Bills 24, Chargers 20.
Dallas (-1) at ST. LOUIS (44.5): Does Austin Davis = Kurt Warner? Maybe, but nothing else on the roster equals Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce or Torry Holt, let alone all three. Still, the Cowboys will find a way to get St. Louis over .500. Rams 26, Cowboys 19.
Washington (+6.5) at PHILADELPHIA (50.5): Is Chip Kelly getting too cute for his own good? We won't find out today, even with the right quarterback starting for the Racists. Eagles 27, Redskins 23.
Houston (-2) at NEW YORK GIANTS (41.5): There's a positive side to Giants owner John Mara being involved in this "internal investigation" being run by the NFL -- maybe it'll keep from actually seeing his own team and wanting to jump out a window. Texans 24, Giants 20.
Minnesota (+10) at NEW ORLEANS (49.5): I'll guarantee you -- I'm a hell of a lot more likely to stay in a Radisson now. Saints 34, Vikings 21.
Tennessee (+7) at CINCINNATI (43): Sports Illustrated has Cincy has the top team in the NFL. They're right. Bengals 26, Titans 13.
Green Bay (+2.5) at DETROIT (53):  I have no clear read on this game ... which is obviously no different than any other game any other week. Lions 27, Packers 24.
Baltimore (-1.5) at CLEVELAND (41.5): If you've stayed a Ravens fan thus far, maybe you should go read this ESPN Between The Lines article about what the Ravens knew when and what they did with that information. Sickening. Browns 23, Ravens 20.

Lock of the Week: Carolina
Trifecta: Carolina, Cincinnati, Indianapolis

2014 Week Two

ATS: 7-9
SU: 6-10
Total $: -$690

2014 Season Totals

ATS: 15-15-2
SU: 15-17
Total $: -$1,050

Thursday, September 18, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 3, 2014 -- Thursday Edition

Tampa Bay (+6.5) at ATLANTA (47): What's the bigger mystery in this game? Is it:
A) What the hell happened to the Falcons offense last week? Were they off picnicking with Detroit's offense? Maybe they had the runs from too many SkyLine three-ways?
B) What the hell has happened to Doug Martin? Bobby Rainey looks like friggin' Jim Brown behind this line, and even when he wasn't hurt, Martin was running in molasses.
In any case, I suspect the Falcons are going to explode here, Bobby Rainey be damned (and dragging Josh McCown along behind him).

Falcons 29, Buccaneers 17.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

The Football Hoser's Week Two 2014 Results


After an acceptable first week (anything .500 or above in Week One is fine by me), I was betting on some teams regressing to their norms. They didn't.

We finished 7-9 against the spread and a miserable 6-10 straight up. Seriously, it's hard to be that bad picking just winners. Yay, Hoser!

The Bills looked awfully .. well, the word is "solid." They have good lines, a strong running game and a QB in E.J. Manuel who seems to understand he doesn't need to be the hero, just a manager. I don't have quite as much faith in Cleveland, but again, fundamentally the Browns are sound.

On the flipside, does New Orleans actually practice defense, or do they all sit on the sidelines and watch Drew Brees play catch with Jimmy Graham? Defensive coordinator (and I use that term extremely loosely) Rob Ryan had words on the sideline with head coach Sean Peyton, but those words had to be, "Yes, we suck. Yes, I'm aware of it. No, I don't expect to be employed here much longer."

See you Thursday with the Thursday night game!

2014 Week Two

ATS: 7-9
SU: 6-10
Total $: -$690

2014 Season Totals

ATS: 15-15-2
SU: 15-17
Total $: -$1,050

Sunday, September 14, 2014

The Football Hoser's 2014 Week 2 ProLine Sunday Update

Here's my Sunday morning look at the differential between the Vegas and ProLine lines and what you might be able to take advantage of. For those of you outside Canada, this won't mean a damned thing. ProLine is the government-run betting line in which they set the lines and you must parlay at least two games for a legal card on the point spreads, so you can go back to waiting for Keith Olbermann to just fire nukes at the NFL office or whatever.

My Lock of the Week, Atlanta, slips just a half-point to a +5 underdog to Cincinnati, which is a steal. In the Trifecta, the Lions also slip a half-point to a +2 dog to Carolina, and Arizona remains a 2.5-point favourite on the road at the Giants.

Obviously the huge move here is the Patriots becoming a 6.5-point favourite over Minnesota with the absence of Adrian Peterson. I adjust my pick earlier in the week to give New England enough cushion to cover, but I'm having second thoughts. I would just stay away from this one.

There's also an important move from +3 to +3.5 for Philadelphia on the road in Indy. That half-point makes the Eagles a nice add to the end of deep parlay cards. Same goes for Chicago, which slips off the number to +7.5 in San Francisco.

In other games:

* KC slips a point to +13 in DEN
* Seattle moves a half to -6.5 at SD

That's everything this morning -- good luck!

Friday, September 12, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week Two, 2014

Welcome to Week Two of the 2014 edition of the Football Hoser's NFL picks, where at least I have more job security than Roger Goddell.

The league announced this week it would conduct an "independent" investigation into its handling of the Ray Rice case. Any time "independent" is used from here on out in reference to this fiasco, it should definitely be set off with quotation marks, and preferably the kind Chris Farley used to use. One thing's guaranteed -- even if everything comes up roses for the NFL, the findings will still leave The Commissioner redfaced.

As for the Thursday pick, the Ravens sure were distracted, huh? At least I'm in good company, as I think about 90% of prognosticators took Pittsburgh and the points. I don't want to say Mike Tomlin's job might be in jeopardy, but somewhere Bill Cowher is waxing his mustache and muttering to himself.

Remember, these picks are for fun. Using these picks to make actual bets is as advisable as having the Orioles' Chris Davis pick up your Adderall prescription.

Detroit (+2.5) at CAROLINA (43.5): I know it's not exactly the same state, but I like to imagine all the Panthers talk like Lindsey Graham. Lions 27, Panthers 21.
Miami (PK) at BUFFALO (43): So Terry Pegula now owns the Bills and the Sabres. I'm pretty sure for $1.98, they'll throw in whatever's left in Buffalo. Dolphins 23, Bills 20.
Jacksonville (+6) at WASHINGTON (43.5): Either RGIII gets right this week or he ain't gettin' right at all. Buy your Kirk Cousins rookie cards now before the rush! Racists 23, Jaguars 19.
Dallas (+3.5) at TENNESSEE (49.5): A pair of 0-2s -- the Cowboys' mark after this week and Jerry Jones' record with bathroom strippers. Titans 29, Cowboys 20.
New England (-3) at MINNESOTA (49): Are we really giving the Vikings defense this much credit for stopping the Rams? I've taken natural laxatives with more push than the St. Louis O-line. Still, the Pats' line didn't look much better. Vikings 24, Patriots 23.
ADDENDUM: I'm sure you've all heard the news by now -- ADP has been deactivated for this Sunday's game. While I have nothing against Matt Asiata, this is like pulling a TD away from Minnesota. The game might come off the board, but for now, change the pick to ... Patriots 26, Vikings 17.
New Orleans (-6.5) at CLEVELAND (47.5): A more effective defense might be to have Rob Ryan just eat Brian Hoyer. Saints 30, Browns 20.
Atlanta (+5.5) at CINCINNATI (49): This line confuses me. Was the Falcons' offense blacked out in Vegas? Falcons 31, Bengals 23.
St. Louis (+6) at TAMPA BAY (37): Ladies and gentlemen, would you please welcome back Mr. Tony Banks! Buccaneers 16, Rams 13.    
Houston (-3) at OAKLAND (40): Texans head coach Bill O'Brien probably had a tougher game against Eastern Michigan last year. Texans 22, Raiders 16.
NY Jets (+8.5) at GREEN BAY (46): It's going to be hard not to make a joke out of Ha Ha Clinton Dix every week. Uh huh huh, hard. Packers 26, Jets 18.
Kansas City (+12) at DENVER (51): Two defensive starters gone for the season, an offense already in shambles. If Andy Reid turns to cheesesteaks for solace, he'll look like Jabba The Hutt by Week Six. Broncos 34, Chiefs 20.
Philadelphia (+3) at INDIANAPOLIS (53.5): Eagles quarterback Nick Foles had trouble with fumbles last week, but at least he can look at the sideline and know none of them were caused by running into his own lineman's ass. Colts 27, Eagles 26.
Chicago (+7) at SAN FRANCISCO (48.5): Tough to understand how the Bears couldn't find a way to get Devin Hester into the passing game last season, huh? 49ers 30, Bears 19.
Arizona (-2.5) at NY GIANTS (42.5): Please send your Eli Manning jokes to: Football Hoser, 34 Igloo Lane, Waycold, ON. Cardinals 27, Giants 19. 
Seattle (-6) at SAN DIEGO (44): A late Philip Rivers pass will get this in under the number. Seahawks 27, Chargers 24.

Lock of the Week: Atlanta
Trifecta: Atlanta, Detroit, Arizona

2014 Week One

ATS: 8-6-2
SU: 9-7
Total $: -$360

Thursday, September 11, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 2, 2014 -- Thursday Edition

Pittsburgh (+2.5) at BALTIMORE (44.5): It's tough to concentrate on a football game when the job of the commissioner of the National Football League is on the line. For my money, I'm not sure how Roger Goddell wriggles out of this. There are only two options:

1) Goddell lied about not seeing the tape and his credibility is shot;
2) Goddell didn't know the NFL had the tape and his credibility is shot.

Will the owners stand behind him? Does Goddell know some dirty secrets about what and when the NFL knew about the severity of concussions that will save him? Could he have been any redder on television?

As for the game, after Pittsburgh's collapse last week, I think the Steelers are playing to make a statement and to solidify Mike Tomlin's job. The Ravens have to be distracted right now, and with the line less than a field goal on the road, take the points.

Steelers 24, Ravens 20.

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

The Football Hoser's Week One 2014 Results

So I'm sitting in front of my computer Friday night, looking at the Lock of the Week. Is it New Orleans, or is it San Francisco? I hemmed and I hawed, and eventually, I stood up, pulled out a shotgun and blew off my own foot.

I believe the first lesson we have learned this season is one we probably already knew -- if you need to make a choice between picks, and Dallas is one of them, go against the Cowboys. Also, if I say anything nice about the Rams for the remainder of the season, punch me.

We finished the week 8-6-2 against the spread and 9-7 straight up. I wouldn't be too torn up about being above .500 in the first week, but losing that lock blew every ProLine ticket I had. The totals, both for the week and the season, will be posted every Tuesday morning. The rest of the schedule will be the Thursday night game on Thursday morning and the remainder of the week's contests on Friday morning/early afternoon.

I'm off to wonder how Ray Rice is suspended indefinitely, but Terrell Suggs -- who once dragged his girlfriend along outside a car AND POURED BLEACH ON HER -- suited up this week for the Ravens.

2014 Week One

ATS: 8-6-2
SU: 9-7
Total $: -$360

Sunday, September 7, 2014

The Football Hoser's 2014 Week 1 ProLine Sunday Update

Here's my Sunday morning look at the differential between the Vegas and ProLine lines and what you might be able to take advantage of. For those of you outside Canada, this won't mean a damned thing. ProLine is the government-run betting line in which they set the lines and you must parlay at least two games for a legal card on the point spreads, so you can go back to grilling or watching funny cat videos or whatever.

For all my fellow Canucks, I'll post this every Sunday morning this season. Good luck!

My Lock of the Week is still the lock, as the New Orleans line moves only a point from -3 to -4. Still a solid buy.

In my Trifecta, San Francisco actually gets a point better, dropping from -5.5 to -4.5 as the road favourites over Dallas. Considering the 49ers might score 50 in this game, again, a no-brainer to stay put. We also gain a half-point on the Rams over Minnesota, as we move from -4 to -3.5.

In other games where the ProLine ... uh, line, changes, Indy only slides a half-point, but it's a big half from -7 to -7.5. That would keep me off this one. The Browns gain a half from +6.5 to +7 against the Steelers, which makes them a good add for parlays.

Buffalo picks up a whole point in Chicago to go to more than a touchdown (+7.5), but I still don't like it. I have a rule about not taking teams where the head coach and team officials get into shouting matches about back-up QBs.

Other possible moves you might be considering, but I'm not:

* WAS moves to +3 from +2.5 at HOU
* Detroit is -5.5 from -4.5 over the Giants
* CAR is +2 instead in a pick 'em with TB
* KC drops from -4.5 to -3.5 hosting TEN
* CIN picks up an inconsequential point from +2.5 to +1.5 against PIT in a game where I like the Bengals to win

That still leaves us with my original Trifecta of NO, SF and STL. If you're building a parlay, here are my thoughts:

Two-teamer: NO, SF
Three-teamer: NO, SF, STL
Four-teamer: NO, SF, STL, CIN
Five-teamer: NO, SF, STL, CIN, OAK
Six-teamer: NO, SF, STL, CIN, OAK, CLE

Saturday, September 6, 2014

The Hoser's NFL Picks, 2014, Week One Edition

Welcome to Week One of the 2015 edition of The Hoser's NFL Picks, where we're already 1-0 for the season, and things can only go downhill from here.

For those of you who are just finding us, the first thing to know is this -- we're not to be taken seriously. The format is as follows: each game is $100 ATS, with a $100 Trifecta and a $300 Lock of the Week for an even $2K per week. When the bye weeks begin, we’ll jump the Lock to $500 to keep the number even. We’ll use the National Score Predicting League line each week, the fine folks who send me updates every week to tell me how awful I am at this.

For you fellow Canucks, keep an eye out late Saturday or early Sunday for my ProLine Picks, where I'll highlight late injuries and lines that could make for good value. God bless legalized gambling!

I watched the Seahawks/Packers game on Sky Sports out of Britain, and we may have an explanation of why football is not catching on over there. Former Bears safety Shaun Gayle was pretty good, but the other English analyst was like watching Hugh Grant after a bottle of Robitussin. That broadcast needs Terry Crews for a week or two.

All of that leads us to this final sentence, a version of which you’ll see every week: remember – these picks are just for fun. Using them to wager money is advisable as catching a ride home with Jim Irsay.

Buffalo (+6.5) at CHICAGO (48.5): Bills fans may not be thrilled with the signing of their new back-up quarterback, but 31 other GMs are. How nice will it be for them to be able to tell their owners, "Well, yeah, we're struggling, but at least we're not paying Kyle Orton $5M!" Bears 30, Bills 14.

Indianapolis (+7) at DENVER (56): The Broncos will be without wide receiver Wes Welker after testing positive for MDMA. At a press conference discussing the four-game suspension, Welker vehemently denied taking Molly, then put on a DeadMau5 mix tape, cracked some glowsticks and drank 47 gallons of water. Broncos 30, Colts 24.

Atlanta (+3) at NEW ORLEANS (52): This is another season where Matty Ice will need plenty of Natty Ice to help him forget. Saints 31, Falcons 20.

Minnesota (+4) at ST. LOUIS (44): This may be the first time in NFL history a starting QB suffered a season-ending injury and half the fan base simultaneously yelled, "Thank God!" The Rams will be better with Shaun Hill under center, and they'll show it right out of the gate. Rams 27, Vikings 17.

Cleveland (+6.5) at PITTSBURGH (40.5): I bet this whole marijuana cloud hanging over the Steeler backfield is just a misunderstanding. I'm sure Mike Tomlin told his team, "Let's get rolling," and Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount just took him literally. I mean, how can you hold this against a guy whose last name literally means "joint?" Steelers 23, Browns 20.

Jacksonville (+10.5) at PHILADELPHIA (53): The Jags need to make a deal with San Francisco. There's T-shirt gold in a Bortles & James backfield. Eagles 30, Jaguars 20.

Oakland (+5) at NY JETS (40): I think the biggest surprise here is someone will win. Raiders 20, Jets 16.

Washington (+2.5) at HOUSTON (45.5): You wonder why the Texans were so bad last season? Their former quarterback can't start this season for the Raiders. The Raiders! That's like a CEO being fired, and then having to take an assistant manager position at 7-11. Texans 23, Racists 20.

Dallas (+5.5) at SAN FRANCISCO (50.5): Expect the Cowboys to lead the league in points allowed, rushing yards against and most pictures of an owner with his junk in the face of random women. 49ers 34, Cowboys 23.

NY Giants (+4.5) at DETROIT (47): Expect another year of the Giants playing badly enough to match the Eli sad face. His audible should be a failhorn. Lions 27, Giants 20.

San Diego (+3) at  ARIZONA (44.5): Until it's clear whether Andre Ellington will play for the Cardinals, stay the hell away from this line. I'm guessing no and picking accordingly. Cardinals 24, Chargers 23.

Carolina (PK) at TAMPA BAY (38.5): All depends on Cam Newton's health, and it ain't lookin' good. Buccaneers 22, Panthers 16.

Cincinnati (+2.5) at BALTIMORE (43): Props to the commissioner for admitting his mistakes in the Ray Rice case. Now could you please have a look at why Josh Gordon will be selling cars this season? Bengals 23, Ravens 17.

Tennessee (+4.5) at KANSAS CITY (43.5): I have to pull a little for Tennessee, as I'm down with anyone who keeps Clipboard Jesus on the payroll. Chiefs 24, Titans 20.

New England (-4.5) at MIAMI (47): I don't know how you could get excited about this Miami team without bath salts. Patriots 26, Dolphins 20.

Lock of the Week: New Orleans
Trifecta: New Orleans, San Francisco, St. Louis

Thursday, September 4, 2014

The Hoser NFL Picks, Week One, 2014 -- Thursday Edition

Welcome back to The Hoser, where are full week's picks will be up on Friday mornings this season, with early-week games posted on Thursday. That brings us to:

Green Bay (+5.5) at SEATTLE (47): This is a helluva way to open the NFL season. Most of the picks I've seen have the Seahawks covering, and I think that comes down to whether you believe a home crowd is worth a field goal. Normally, I would say no, but when you're talking Seattle and coming off a Super Bowl win? It is, which makes this spread less than a field goal on a neutral field, and I take that all day long. Seahawks 27, Packers 21.