Sunday, September 28, 2014

The Football Hoser's 2014 Week 4 ProLine Sunday Update

Our Trifecta this week is New Orleans, Chicago and Atlanta. The Saints (our lock) stays the same at -3 over Dallas, making this a great game to add to parlay tickets. The Bears slide from +2 to +1.5 against the Packers, but we have Chicago outright anyway.

The killer here is Atlanta moving from -3 to -3.5 on the road in Minnesota. The Falcons travel like unrefrigerated milk, and the Vikings are not only starting Teddy Bridgewater, but have had a couple weeks to regroup and figure out life without ADP. If you wanted to bail on this game with it off the field goal, I'd understand.

Other movers of note:

* Detroit is all the way to -3 from -1.5 over the Jets. That's a little high on the road.
* Pittsburgh has climbed to -9 from -7.5 over Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers can't be as bad as they were last week, can they? Still, even having Doug Martin back won't mean much.

Good luck this week!

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week Four, 2014

Welcome to Week Four of the 2014 edition of the Football Hoser's NFL picks, where it's nice to know while people starve, Corona is building giant mirrors to banish shade from patios.

Last week was an acceptable 9-7 against the spread and straight up, but once again we blew the Lock of the Week. It's tough to figure how Carolina went so far south in one week, but the simplest answers might be that Cam Newton is more banged up than we know and not having Greg Hardy affects the Panther D mightily.

There's an excellent piece at Grantland this week by Andrew Sharp about Eagles DB Cary Williams, who called out the Philly coaching staff for practicing them too hard. Williams, who as of yet has not had his words turned into a rap anthem by DJ Steve Porter, may have a point, as he has been apparently been backed up anonymously by other Eagles. Check out that piece.

Our cash outlay will change as the byes start this week. The Lock of the Week will jump from $300 to $500 to keep the bets at an even $2K per week. So, yeah, there's me throwing another $200 in the crapper. Wasn't I just bitching about Corona?

As always, remember: these picks are for fun. Using these picks to make actual bets is as advisable as being stranded on an island with John Rocker.

Miami (-3.5) at OAKLAND (40.5): A three-hour sonogram of Pippa's belly might be more entertaining than this. Dolphins 23, Raiders 17.
Green Bay (-2) at CHICAGO (51.5): The Packers offense may be a shambles, but I can say nothing bad about Aaron Rodgers as long as he is getting Hans and Franz work. Bears 26, Packers 23.
Buffalo (+3) at HOUSTON (41): Speaking of State Farm commercials, apparently a second commercial featuring Rob Schneider as the "Makin' Copies" guy has been pulled because he is a serious anti-vaccination guy. I guess I understand that, but would anyone actually make decisions about their children's health based on what Deuce Bigalow recommends? Texans 22, Bills 20.
Tennessee (+8) at INDIANAPOLIS (46): We're getting closer and closer to Clipboard Jesus taking the field. Can I get an AMEN! Colts 30, Titans 17.
Tampa Bay (+7.5) at PITTSBURGH (45): This only looks like a total mismatch because it is. Steelers 31, Buccaneers 20.
Jacksonville (+13) at SAN DIEGO (45): The Chargers are missing a large number of players due to injury. Fortunately for them, Jacksonville is missing an entire franchise. Chargers 34, Jaguars 16.
Atlanta (-3) at MINNESOTA (47): The Falcons travel about as well as the French army, but I like this at least as a push. Falcons 24, Vikings 16.
Philadelphia (+4.5) at SAN FRANCISCO (50.5): The Eagles are the worst 3-0 team in history, while the 49ers have to figure out second halves at some point. Still, more than a field goal ... 49ers 26, Eagles 24.
Carolina (+3.5) at BALTIMORE (40.5): Is it possible, given everything that's happened this year, that the Ravens could overtake Washington as the NFL's most hated franchise? Has that already happened? Ravens 22, Panthers 20.
Detroit (-1.5) at NEW YORK JETS (44): I had a nice conversation with a diehard Jets fan this week. In Canada. So there may be a Santa Claus after all. Lions 23, Jets 17.
New Orleans (-3) at DALLAS (53): Because there will efinitely be none on isplay in allas, I have compose this sentence with no "." Saints 31, Cowboys 24.
New England (-4) at KANSAS CITY (45): Beat writers for the Patriots are speculating Tom Brady has some sort of lower-leg injury that is keeping him from pushing off into his throws. It's his own damned fault -- those Ugh boots just offer no support. Patriots 24, Chiefs 21.

Lock of the Week: New Orleans
Trifecta: New Orleans, Chicago, Atlanta

2014 Week Three

Lock of the Week: 0-1
Trifecta: 0-1
ATS: 9-7
SU: 9-7
Total $: -$270

2014 Season Totals

Lock of the Week: 0-3
Trifecta: 0-3
ATS: 24-22-2
SU: 24-24
Total $: -$1,320

Thursday, September 25, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 4, 2014 -- Thursday Edition

New York Giants (+3.5) at WASHINGTON (46): Oh, if only the Giants could play a Ryan Fitzpatrick-helmed team every week. The man is good for what ails you.

Trent Dilfer's theory on how Fitzpatrick keeps landing starting jobs is a good one -- he's a placeholder quarterback who knows he'll be replaced before long by a young buck, and he has a track record of starting fast and tailing off. Dilfer says because Fitzpatrick is so smart, he wins games on brains, but team catch up and eventually his head writes cheques his talent can't cash. Pretty brilliant.

I think there has to be a bit of a slowdown for Kirk Cousins, even though he's clearly the better QB for the team recently destroyed by South Park. On the other side, I think Eli and Rashard Jennings are just heating up. Still, given Washington's at home, I think this one stays pretty tight.

Giants 26, Redskins 23.

Sunday, September 21, 2014

The Football Hoser's 2014 Week 3 ProLine Sunday Update

Just a quickie today:

My Lock of the Week, Carolina, stays at -3.5. In the Trifecta, Cincinnati stays at -7 and is a solid play for parlay tickets, but Indianapolis picks up the dreaded half-point to move to -7.5. I'm still giving the points, but it's a little scarier now.

Other moves to note:

* BUFFALO gains a full point, but it's below a field goal over San Diego, so not a big deal.
* ST. LOUIS goes from -1 to -3 over Dallas, which is nuts. Still good for parlays, but a two-point difference is very unusual.
* PHILADELPHIA moves on to the number at -7 against Washington. Again, not nearly as strong as it was at -6.5, but I'm taking the Racists and the points, so good for me.
* NEW ORLEANS also gains a full point to -11 against the Vikings, but that shouldn't affect anyone in this game.
* BALTIMORE goes from -1.5 to -2.5 against the Browns.
* DETROIT only gets -1.5 instead of -2.5 over Green Bay.
* NEW ENGLAND goes to above two touchdowns at -14.5 against Oakland. Still seems safe, but ...
* The JETS lose a point and a half to the Bears, now only a -1.5 favourite.

Good luck today!

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week Three, 2014

Welcome to Week Three of the 2014 edition of the Football Hoser's NFL picks, where I'm wondering who thought Iggy Azalea and J-Lo rubbing ass would be hot. That seems like a good way to catch something.

I heard someone on the radio today perfectly describe what I did in Week Two, and that was overreact. All of us (well, not the people winning money) tend to put too much stock in the games we've just watched rather than consider the long view of a team. That's doubly difficult to avoid early in the season, when we're all feeling our way.

Having said that, congratulations to Tampa Bay for Thursday night putting on the single sorriest excuse for an NFL game I have ever seen, which we saw coming. We got it straight up and against the spread, and the Buccaneers got it every which way including loose.

Remember, these picks are for fun. Using these picks to make actual bets is as advisable as hanging out in a University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee frat house.

Denver (+5) at SEATTLE (48.5): Think the Seahawks might be a little bit pissed off this week? I bet Pete Carroll even made his staff drink McDonald's coffee. Seahawks 27, Broncos 21.
Kansas City (+4) at MIAMI (42): There's a pretty good chance you'll see Larry Czonka in the Dolphin backfield this week. Still, with Jamaal Charles iffy ... Dolphins 22, Chiefs 20.
Pittsburgh (+3.5) at CAROLINA (41.5): In essence, this line says Vegas thinks the Steelers would be even with the Panthers at a neutral site. Uhhhh huh. Panthers 27, Steelers 16.
Chicago (+3) at NEW YORK JETS (45.5): When the Jets blow a lead like they did last week, it must be comforting to fans to be able to say, "Well, it least it wasn't the Buttfumble." Bears 23, Jets 20.
Indianapolis (-7) at JACKSONVILLE (45.5): This'll be uglier than John Goodman in a thong. Colts 34, Jaguars 16.
Oakland (+14) at NEW ENGLAND (46.5): The belief here must be that the Patriots will win 46.5-0. Patriots 31, Raiders 10.
San Francisco (-3) at ARIZONA (42): It looks like Carson Palmer is out again this week, and who would've thought that might be the difference between these two teams? 49ers 26, Cardinals 20.
San Diego (+2.5) at BUFFALO (45.5): I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think the Bills are for real. I'd still stay away from this game, though. Bills 24, Chargers 20.
Dallas (-1) at ST. LOUIS (44.5): Does Austin Davis = Kurt Warner? Maybe, but nothing else on the roster equals Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce or Torry Holt, let alone all three. Still, the Cowboys will find a way to get St. Louis over .500. Rams 26, Cowboys 19.
Washington (+6.5) at PHILADELPHIA (50.5): Is Chip Kelly getting too cute for his own good? We won't find out today, even with the right quarterback starting for the Racists. Eagles 27, Redskins 23.
Houston (-2) at NEW YORK GIANTS (41.5): There's a positive side to Giants owner John Mara being involved in this "internal investigation" being run by the NFL -- maybe it'll keep from actually seeing his own team and wanting to jump out a window. Texans 24, Giants 20.
Minnesota (+10) at NEW ORLEANS (49.5): I'll guarantee you -- I'm a hell of a lot more likely to stay in a Radisson now. Saints 34, Vikings 21.
Tennessee (+7) at CINCINNATI (43): Sports Illustrated has Cincy has the top team in the NFL. They're right. Bengals 26, Titans 13.
Green Bay (+2.5) at DETROIT (53):  I have no clear read on this game ... which is obviously no different than any other game any other week. Lions 27, Packers 24.
Baltimore (-1.5) at CLEVELAND (41.5): If you've stayed a Ravens fan thus far, maybe you should go read this ESPN Between The Lines article about what the Ravens knew when and what they did with that information. Sickening. Browns 23, Ravens 20.

Lock of the Week: Carolina
Trifecta: Carolina, Cincinnati, Indianapolis

2014 Week Two

ATS: 7-9
SU: 6-10
Total $: -$690

2014 Season Totals

ATS: 15-15-2
SU: 15-17
Total $: -$1,050

Thursday, September 18, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 3, 2014 -- Thursday Edition

Tampa Bay (+6.5) at ATLANTA (47): What's the bigger mystery in this game? Is it:
A) What the hell happened to the Falcons offense last week? Were they off picnicking with Detroit's offense? Maybe they had the runs from too many SkyLine three-ways?
B) What the hell has happened to Doug Martin? Bobby Rainey looks like friggin' Jim Brown behind this line, and even when he wasn't hurt, Martin was running in molasses.
In any case, I suspect the Falcons are going to explode here, Bobby Rainey be damned (and dragging Josh McCown along behind him).

Falcons 29, Buccaneers 17.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

The Football Hoser's Week Two 2014 Results


After an acceptable first week (anything .500 or above in Week One is fine by me), I was betting on some teams regressing to their norms. They didn't.

We finished 7-9 against the spread and a miserable 6-10 straight up. Seriously, it's hard to be that bad picking just winners. Yay, Hoser!

The Bills looked awfully .. well, the word is "solid." They have good lines, a strong running game and a QB in E.J. Manuel who seems to understand he doesn't need to be the hero, just a manager. I don't have quite as much faith in Cleveland, but again, fundamentally the Browns are sound.

On the flipside, does New Orleans actually practice defense, or do they all sit on the sidelines and watch Drew Brees play catch with Jimmy Graham? Defensive coordinator (and I use that term extremely loosely) Rob Ryan had words on the sideline with head coach Sean Peyton, but those words had to be, "Yes, we suck. Yes, I'm aware of it. No, I don't expect to be employed here much longer."

See you Thursday with the Thursday night game!

2014 Week Two

ATS: 7-9
SU: 6-10
Total $: -$690

2014 Season Totals

ATS: 15-15-2
SU: 15-17
Total $: -$1,050

Sunday, September 14, 2014

The Football Hoser's 2014 Week 2 ProLine Sunday Update

Here's my Sunday morning look at the differential between the Vegas and ProLine lines and what you might be able to take advantage of. For those of you outside Canada, this won't mean a damned thing. ProLine is the government-run betting line in which they set the lines and you must parlay at least two games for a legal card on the point spreads, so you can go back to waiting for Keith Olbermann to just fire nukes at the NFL office or whatever.

My Lock of the Week, Atlanta, slips just a half-point to a +5 underdog to Cincinnati, which is a steal. In the Trifecta, the Lions also slip a half-point to a +2 dog to Carolina, and Arizona remains a 2.5-point favourite on the road at the Giants.

Obviously the huge move here is the Patriots becoming a 6.5-point favourite over Minnesota with the absence of Adrian Peterson. I adjust my pick earlier in the week to give New England enough cushion to cover, but I'm having second thoughts. I would just stay away from this one.

There's also an important move from +3 to +3.5 for Philadelphia on the road in Indy. That half-point makes the Eagles a nice add to the end of deep parlay cards. Same goes for Chicago, which slips off the number to +7.5 in San Francisco.

In other games:

* KC slips a point to +13 in DEN
* Seattle moves a half to -6.5 at SD

That's everything this morning -- good luck!

Friday, September 12, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week Two, 2014

Welcome to Week Two of the 2014 edition of the Football Hoser's NFL picks, where at least I have more job security than Roger Goddell.

The league announced this week it would conduct an "independent" investigation into its handling of the Ray Rice case. Any time "independent" is used from here on out in reference to this fiasco, it should definitely be set off with quotation marks, and preferably the kind Chris Farley used to use. One thing's guaranteed -- even if everything comes up roses for the NFL, the findings will still leave The Commissioner redfaced.

As for the Thursday pick, the Ravens sure were distracted, huh? At least I'm in good company, as I think about 90% of prognosticators took Pittsburgh and the points. I don't want to say Mike Tomlin's job might be in jeopardy, but somewhere Bill Cowher is waxing his mustache and muttering to himself.

Remember, these picks are for fun. Using these picks to make actual bets is as advisable as having the Orioles' Chris Davis pick up your Adderall prescription.

Detroit (+2.5) at CAROLINA (43.5): I know it's not exactly the same state, but I like to imagine all the Panthers talk like Lindsey Graham. Lions 27, Panthers 21.
Miami (PK) at BUFFALO (43): So Terry Pegula now owns the Bills and the Sabres. I'm pretty sure for $1.98, they'll throw in whatever's left in Buffalo. Dolphins 23, Bills 20.
Jacksonville (+6) at WASHINGTON (43.5): Either RGIII gets right this week or he ain't gettin' right at all. Buy your Kirk Cousins rookie cards now before the rush! Racists 23, Jaguars 19.
Dallas (+3.5) at TENNESSEE (49.5): A pair of 0-2s -- the Cowboys' mark after this week and Jerry Jones' record with bathroom strippers. Titans 29, Cowboys 20.
New England (-3) at MINNESOTA (49): Are we really giving the Vikings defense this much credit for stopping the Rams? I've taken natural laxatives with more push than the St. Louis O-line. Still, the Pats' line didn't look much better. Vikings 24, Patriots 23.
ADDENDUM: I'm sure you've all heard the news by now -- ADP has been deactivated for this Sunday's game. While I have nothing against Matt Asiata, this is like pulling a TD away from Minnesota. The game might come off the board, but for now, change the pick to ... Patriots 26, Vikings 17.
New Orleans (-6.5) at CLEVELAND (47.5): A more effective defense might be to have Rob Ryan just eat Brian Hoyer. Saints 30, Browns 20.
Atlanta (+5.5) at CINCINNATI (49): This line confuses me. Was the Falcons' offense blacked out in Vegas? Falcons 31, Bengals 23.
St. Louis (+6) at TAMPA BAY (37): Ladies and gentlemen, would you please welcome back Mr. Tony Banks! Buccaneers 16, Rams 13.    
Houston (-3) at OAKLAND (40): Texans head coach Bill O'Brien probably had a tougher game against Eastern Michigan last year. Texans 22, Raiders 16.
NY Jets (+8.5) at GREEN BAY (46): It's going to be hard not to make a joke out of Ha Ha Clinton Dix every week. Uh huh huh, hard. Packers 26, Jets 18.
Kansas City (+12) at DENVER (51): Two defensive starters gone for the season, an offense already in shambles. If Andy Reid turns to cheesesteaks for solace, he'll look like Jabba The Hutt by Week Six. Broncos 34, Chiefs 20.
Philadelphia (+3) at INDIANAPOLIS (53.5): Eagles quarterback Nick Foles had trouble with fumbles last week, but at least he can look at the sideline and know none of them were caused by running into his own lineman's ass. Colts 27, Eagles 26.
Chicago (+7) at SAN FRANCISCO (48.5): Tough to understand how the Bears couldn't find a way to get Devin Hester into the passing game last season, huh? 49ers 30, Bears 19.
Arizona (-2.5) at NY GIANTS (42.5): Please send your Eli Manning jokes to: Football Hoser, 34 Igloo Lane, Waycold, ON. Cardinals 27, Giants 19. 
Seattle (-6) at SAN DIEGO (44): A late Philip Rivers pass will get this in under the number. Seahawks 27, Chargers 24.

Lock of the Week: Atlanta
Trifecta: Atlanta, Detroit, Arizona

2014 Week One

ATS: 8-6-2
SU: 9-7
Total $: -$360

Thursday, September 11, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 2, 2014 -- Thursday Edition

Pittsburgh (+2.5) at BALTIMORE (44.5): It's tough to concentrate on a football game when the job of the commissioner of the National Football League is on the line. For my money, I'm not sure how Roger Goddell wriggles out of this. There are only two options:

1) Goddell lied about not seeing the tape and his credibility is shot;
2) Goddell didn't know the NFL had the tape and his credibility is shot.

Will the owners stand behind him? Does Goddell know some dirty secrets about what and when the NFL knew about the severity of concussions that will save him? Could he have been any redder on television?

As for the game, after Pittsburgh's collapse last week, I think the Steelers are playing to make a statement and to solidify Mike Tomlin's job. The Ravens have to be distracted right now, and with the line less than a field goal on the road, take the points.

Steelers 24, Ravens 20.

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

The Football Hoser's Week One 2014 Results

So I'm sitting in front of my computer Friday night, looking at the Lock of the Week. Is it New Orleans, or is it San Francisco? I hemmed and I hawed, and eventually, I stood up, pulled out a shotgun and blew off my own foot.

I believe the first lesson we have learned this season is one we probably already knew -- if you need to make a choice between picks, and Dallas is one of them, go against the Cowboys. Also, if I say anything nice about the Rams for the remainder of the season, punch me.

We finished the week 8-6-2 against the spread and 9-7 straight up. I wouldn't be too torn up about being above .500 in the first week, but losing that lock blew every ProLine ticket I had. The totals, both for the week and the season, will be posted every Tuesday morning. The rest of the schedule will be the Thursday night game on Thursday morning and the remainder of the week's contests on Friday morning/early afternoon.

I'm off to wonder how Ray Rice is suspended indefinitely, but Terrell Suggs -- who once dragged his girlfriend along outside a car AND POURED BLEACH ON HER -- suited up this week for the Ravens.

2014 Week One

ATS: 8-6-2
SU: 9-7
Total $: -$360

Sunday, September 7, 2014

The Football Hoser's 2014 Week 1 ProLine Sunday Update

Here's my Sunday morning look at the differential between the Vegas and ProLine lines and what you might be able to take advantage of. For those of you outside Canada, this won't mean a damned thing. ProLine is the government-run betting line in which they set the lines and you must parlay at least two games for a legal card on the point spreads, so you can go back to grilling or watching funny cat videos or whatever.

For all my fellow Canucks, I'll post this every Sunday morning this season. Good luck!

My Lock of the Week is still the lock, as the New Orleans line moves only a point from -3 to -4. Still a solid buy.

In my Trifecta, San Francisco actually gets a point better, dropping from -5.5 to -4.5 as the road favourites over Dallas. Considering the 49ers might score 50 in this game, again, a no-brainer to stay put. We also gain a half-point on the Rams over Minnesota, as we move from -4 to -3.5.

In other games where the ProLine ... uh, line, changes, Indy only slides a half-point, but it's a big half from -7 to -7.5. That would keep me off this one. The Browns gain a half from +6.5 to +7 against the Steelers, which makes them a good add for parlays.

Buffalo picks up a whole point in Chicago to go to more than a touchdown (+7.5), but I still don't like it. I have a rule about not taking teams where the head coach and team officials get into shouting matches about back-up QBs.

Other possible moves you might be considering, but I'm not:

* WAS moves to +3 from +2.5 at HOU
* Detroit is -5.5 from -4.5 over the Giants
* CAR is +2 instead in a pick 'em with TB
* KC drops from -4.5 to -3.5 hosting TEN
* CIN picks up an inconsequential point from +2.5 to +1.5 against PIT in a game where I like the Bengals to win

That still leaves us with my original Trifecta of NO, SF and STL. If you're building a parlay, here are my thoughts:

Two-teamer: NO, SF
Three-teamer: NO, SF, STL
Four-teamer: NO, SF, STL, CIN
Five-teamer: NO, SF, STL, CIN, OAK
Six-teamer: NO, SF, STL, CIN, OAK, CLE

Saturday, September 6, 2014

The Hoser's NFL Picks, 2014, Week One Edition

Welcome to Week One of the 2015 edition of The Hoser's NFL Picks, where we're already 1-0 for the season, and things can only go downhill from here.

For those of you who are just finding us, the first thing to know is this -- we're not to be taken seriously. The format is as follows: each game is $100 ATS, with a $100 Trifecta and a $300 Lock of the Week for an even $2K per week. When the bye weeks begin, we’ll jump the Lock to $500 to keep the number even. We’ll use the National Score Predicting League line each week, the fine folks who send me updates every week to tell me how awful I am at this.

For you fellow Canucks, keep an eye out late Saturday or early Sunday for my ProLine Picks, where I'll highlight late injuries and lines that could make for good value. God bless legalized gambling!

I watched the Seahawks/Packers game on Sky Sports out of Britain, and we may have an explanation of why football is not catching on over there. Former Bears safety Shaun Gayle was pretty good, but the other English analyst was like watching Hugh Grant after a bottle of Robitussin. That broadcast needs Terry Crews for a week or two.

All of that leads us to this final sentence, a version of which you’ll see every week: remember – these picks are just for fun. Using them to wager money is advisable as catching a ride home with Jim Irsay.

Buffalo (+6.5) at CHICAGO (48.5): Bills fans may not be thrilled with the signing of their new back-up quarterback, but 31 other GMs are. How nice will it be for them to be able to tell their owners, "Well, yeah, we're struggling, but at least we're not paying Kyle Orton $5M!" Bears 30, Bills 14.

Indianapolis (+7) at DENVER (56): The Broncos will be without wide receiver Wes Welker after testing positive for MDMA. At a press conference discussing the four-game suspension, Welker vehemently denied taking Molly, then put on a DeadMau5 mix tape, cracked some glowsticks and drank 47 gallons of water. Broncos 30, Colts 24.

Atlanta (+3) at NEW ORLEANS (52): This is another season where Matty Ice will need plenty of Natty Ice to help him forget. Saints 31, Falcons 20.

Minnesota (+4) at ST. LOUIS (44): This may be the first time in NFL history a starting QB suffered a season-ending injury and half the fan base simultaneously yelled, "Thank God!" The Rams will be better with Shaun Hill under center, and they'll show it right out of the gate. Rams 27, Vikings 17.

Cleveland (+6.5) at PITTSBURGH (40.5): I bet this whole marijuana cloud hanging over the Steeler backfield is just a misunderstanding. I'm sure Mike Tomlin told his team, "Let's get rolling," and Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount just took him literally. I mean, how can you hold this against a guy whose last name literally means "joint?" Steelers 23, Browns 20.

Jacksonville (+10.5) at PHILADELPHIA (53): The Jags need to make a deal with San Francisco. There's T-shirt gold in a Bortles & James backfield. Eagles 30, Jaguars 20.

Oakland (+5) at NY JETS (40): I think the biggest surprise here is someone will win. Raiders 20, Jets 16.

Washington (+2.5) at HOUSTON (45.5): You wonder why the Texans were so bad last season? Their former quarterback can't start this season for the Raiders. The Raiders! That's like a CEO being fired, and then having to take an assistant manager position at 7-11. Texans 23, Racists 20.

Dallas (+5.5) at SAN FRANCISCO (50.5): Expect the Cowboys to lead the league in points allowed, rushing yards against and most pictures of an owner with his junk in the face of random women. 49ers 34, Cowboys 23.

NY Giants (+4.5) at DETROIT (47): Expect another year of the Giants playing badly enough to match the Eli sad face. His audible should be a failhorn. Lions 27, Giants 20.

San Diego (+3) at  ARIZONA (44.5): Until it's clear whether Andre Ellington will play for the Cardinals, stay the hell away from this line. I'm guessing no and picking accordingly. Cardinals 24, Chargers 23.

Carolina (PK) at TAMPA BAY (38.5): All depends on Cam Newton's health, and it ain't lookin' good. Buccaneers 22, Panthers 16.

Cincinnati (+2.5) at BALTIMORE (43): Props to the commissioner for admitting his mistakes in the Ray Rice case. Now could you please have a look at why Josh Gordon will be selling cars this season? Bengals 23, Ravens 17.

Tennessee (+4.5) at KANSAS CITY (43.5): I have to pull a little for Tennessee, as I'm down with anyone who keeps Clipboard Jesus on the payroll. Chiefs 24, Titans 20.

New England (-4.5) at MIAMI (47): I don't know how you could get excited about this Miami team without bath salts. Patriots 26, Dolphins 20.

Lock of the Week: New Orleans
Trifecta: New Orleans, San Francisco, St. Louis

Thursday, September 4, 2014

The Hoser NFL Picks, Week One, 2014 -- Thursday Edition

Welcome back to The Hoser, where are full week's picks will be up on Friday mornings this season, with early-week games posted on Thursday. That brings us to:

Green Bay (+5.5) at SEATTLE (47): This is a helluva way to open the NFL season. Most of the picks I've seen have the Seahawks covering, and I think that comes down to whether you believe a home crowd is worth a field goal. Normally, I would say no, but when you're talking Seattle and coming off a Super Bowl win? It is, which makes this spread less than a field goal on a neutral field, and I take that all day long. Seahawks 27, Packers 21.