Thursday, September 10, 2015

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 1 2015 Edition

Welcome to Week One of the 2015 edition of The Hoser's NFL Picks, where we're ready to uphold our five-year tradition of having absolutely no value to bettors.

For those of you who are just finding us, the first thing to know is this -- we're not to be taken seriously. The format is as follows: each game is $100 ATS, with a $100 Trifecta and a $300 Lock of the Week for an even $2K per week. When the bye weeks begin, we’ll jump the Lock to $500 to keep the number even. We’ll use the National Score Predicting League line each week, the fine folks who send me updates every week to tell me how awful I am at this.

For you fellow Canucks, keep an eye out late Saturday or early Sunday for my ProLine Picks, where I'll highlight late injuries and lines that could make for good value. God bless legalized gambling!

Let's get this out of the way: I'm no Patriots fan, but the whole Deflategate "scandal" was pretty weak. I'm sure Brady knew something damning ("Oh, man, if you had just asked for my phone a couple days ago!"), but having Roger Goddell be the man in charge of your credibility is like putting Lindsay Lohan in charge of your stash. Is it a smoke screen to cover up another NFL cover-up? Eight months ago that would have been crazy to suggest. Now?

The NFL Network also premiered the story of the 2014 Patriots this week. In keeping with the spirit of the thing, I taped it.

All of that leads us to this final sentence, a version of which you’ll see every week: remember – these picks are just for fun. Using them to wager money is as advisable as taking Sheldon Richardson up on his offer to drive your kids to school.

Pittsburgh (+7) at NEW ENGLAND (52): No Bell, no Bryant, no chance. Patriots 27, Steelers 17.
Kansas City (+1) at HOUSTON (40.5): The Chiefs are poised to step a big step forward this season, and J.J. Watts can't play all 22 positions. Wait, can he? *Calls Halliburton hotline, imitates Dick Cheney's voice and asks for Cloning Department, gets hung up on* Well, I can't make it happen. CHIEFS 23, TEXANS 17.
Cleveland (+3) at NEW YORK JETS (39.5): You could spend all day debating who has the lousier group of quarterbacks in this game and the fun of it is, there's no right answer! I like Ryan Fitzpatrick (how can you diss a guy who graduated from Harvard?), and he has a knack for playing well the first few games with every new team - until the opposition remembers he can't throw a sideline route and starts jumping everything. JETS 23, BROWNS 17.
Green Bay (-7) at CHICAGO (50): At halftime in the parking lot, Scott Walker will debate ... well, take your pick of any Illinois Republican state-level disaster. The Taliban will then blow up both podiums and Americans everywhere will think, "Maybe they aren't so bad."  PACKERS 26, BEARS 16.
New Orleans (+2.5) at ARIZONA (48): Did you know Drew Brees sat behind Doug Flutie his rookie season? It worked out well, because Doug's so short Drew could see right over him. CARDINALS 24, SAINTS 23.
Indianapolis (-3) at BUFFALO (46.5): I have a great love for Rex Ryan, and I think the Bills are headed in the right direction. But when you cut Fred Jackson and then resign Matt Cassel, I don't think you have much of a shot against Indy. I do really like the under here, though. COLTS 22, BILLS 13.
Miami (-4) at WASHINGTON (43.5): The good thing about RGIII's concussion is maybe he'll forget he works for a bunch of racists. DOLPHINS 24, RACISTS 16.
Carolina (-3.5) at JACKSONVILLE (41): This game won't be very good, but it will feature lots of local ads for fried foods. Getcha sum gizzards, sumbitch! PANTHERS 23, JAGUARS 20.
Seattle (-4) at ST. LOUIS (41): I may have misread the injury report and depth charts, but are the Rams down to Richie Cunningham at running back? Even if not true, any thought you have of picking St. Louis in this game, well, sit on it, Pottsie. SEAHAWKS 26, RAMS 16.
Detroit (+3) at SAN DIEGO (45.5): This is the most inexplicable line of the week for me. Yes, the Chargers are at home - the old-age home. The Lions are clearly better in just about every facet of the game, and I think they win this outright. LIONS 27, CHARGERS 20.
Tennessee (+3) at TAMPA BAY (41.5): Two rookie quarterbacks? Expect more picks than at that Smails' kid's house. BUCCANEERS 23, TITANS 17.
Cincinnati (-3.5) at OAKLAND (43.5): Every year I look at the Raiders' roster and hear David Bryne in my ear chanting, "SAME AS IT EVER WAS!" I'm sure fans would gladly let them move, but then where would they dress up like extras at a crappy wrasslin' promotion? BENGALS 26, RAIDERS 20.
Baltimore (+4.5) at DENVER (49): I don't have a good explanation for why, but I just feel like the Broncos are due to struggle this season. Maybe it's fear of C.J. Anderson being a one-hit wonder, maybe it's just time ... maybe it's because Peyton Manning's head is now sewn directly to his torso. Still, the Ravens are banged up and traveling. BRONCOS 29, RAVENS 22.
New York Giants (+6) at DALLAS (51): The Giants and Jason Pierre-Paul are at a contract impasse. They're apparently far apart on term, money and his offseason fireworks accident, and Pierre-Paul didn't help himself when he showed his displeasure by giving John Mara the finger. COWBOYS 30, GIANTS 23.
Philadelphia (-3) at ATLANTA (55.5): The scoreboard's going to be going off like a pinball machine (you kids remember those, right?) in this one, but the gap between the defenses should allow Chip Kelly's Greatest Show Without Tim Tebow to handle the Falcons. And at 55.5 for the O/U, I'd stay away. EAGLES 30, FALCONS 24.
Minnesota (-2.5) at SAN FRANCISCO (41.5): This is less about how much the Vikings have improved and more about the absolute disaster that is the 49ers roster. I can only suggest they bring back Mike Singletary to make sure the get the first overall pick next season. VIKINGS 24, 49ERS 17.

Lock of the Week: Seattle
Trifecta: Seattle, Detroit, Indianapolis

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