Sunday, September 7, 2014

The Football Hoser's 2014 Week 1 ProLine Sunday Update

Here's my Sunday morning look at the differential between the Vegas and ProLine lines and what you might be able to take advantage of. For those of you outside Canada, this won't mean a damned thing. ProLine is the government-run betting line in which they set the lines and you must parlay at least two games for a legal card on the point spreads, so you can go back to grilling or watching funny cat videos or whatever.

For all my fellow Canucks, I'll post this every Sunday morning this season. Good luck!

My Lock of the Week is still the lock, as the New Orleans line moves only a point from -3 to -4. Still a solid buy.

In my Trifecta, San Francisco actually gets a point better, dropping from -5.5 to -4.5 as the road favourites over Dallas. Considering the 49ers might score 50 in this game, again, a no-brainer to stay put. We also gain a half-point on the Rams over Minnesota, as we move from -4 to -3.5.

In other games where the ProLine ... uh, line, changes, Indy only slides a half-point, but it's a big half from -7 to -7.5. That would keep me off this one. The Browns gain a half from +6.5 to +7 against the Steelers, which makes them a good add for parlays.

Buffalo picks up a whole point in Chicago to go to more than a touchdown (+7.5), but I still don't like it. I have a rule about not taking teams where the head coach and team officials get into shouting matches about back-up QBs.

Other possible moves you might be considering, but I'm not:

* WAS moves to +3 from +2.5 at HOU
* Detroit is -5.5 from -4.5 over the Giants
* CAR is +2 instead in a pick 'em with TB
* KC drops from -4.5 to -3.5 hosting TEN
* CIN picks up an inconsequential point from +2.5 to +1.5 against PIT in a game where I like the Bengals to win

That still leaves us with my original Trifecta of NO, SF and STL. If you're building a parlay, here are my thoughts:

Two-teamer: NO, SF
Three-teamer: NO, SF, STL
Four-teamer: NO, SF, STL, CIN
Five-teamer: NO, SF, STL, CIN, OAK
Six-teamer: NO, SF, STL, CIN, OAK, CLE

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