Sunday, September 21, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week Three, 2014

Welcome to Week Three of the 2014 edition of the Football Hoser's NFL picks, where I'm wondering who thought Iggy Azalea and J-Lo rubbing ass would be hot. That seems like a good way to catch something.

I heard someone on the radio today perfectly describe what I did in Week Two, and that was overreact. All of us (well, not the people winning money) tend to put too much stock in the games we've just watched rather than consider the long view of a team. That's doubly difficult to avoid early in the season, when we're all feeling our way.

Having said that, congratulations to Tampa Bay for Thursday night putting on the single sorriest excuse for an NFL game I have ever seen, which we saw coming. We got it straight up and against the spread, and the Buccaneers got it every which way including loose.

Remember, these picks are for fun. Using these picks to make actual bets is as advisable as hanging out in a University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee frat house.

Denver (+5) at SEATTLE (48.5): Think the Seahawks might be a little bit pissed off this week? I bet Pete Carroll even made his staff drink McDonald's coffee. Seahawks 27, Broncos 21.
Kansas City (+4) at MIAMI (42): There's a pretty good chance you'll see Larry Czonka in the Dolphin backfield this week. Still, with Jamaal Charles iffy ... Dolphins 22, Chiefs 20.
Pittsburgh (+3.5) at CAROLINA (41.5): In essence, this line says Vegas thinks the Steelers would be even with the Panthers at a neutral site. Uhhhh huh. Panthers 27, Steelers 16.
Chicago (+3) at NEW YORK JETS (45.5): When the Jets blow a lead like they did last week, it must be comforting to fans to be able to say, "Well, it least it wasn't the Buttfumble." Bears 23, Jets 20.
Indianapolis (-7) at JACKSONVILLE (45.5): This'll be uglier than John Goodman in a thong. Colts 34, Jaguars 16.
Oakland (+14) at NEW ENGLAND (46.5): The belief here must be that the Patriots will win 46.5-0. Patriots 31, Raiders 10.
San Francisco (-3) at ARIZONA (42): It looks like Carson Palmer is out again this week, and who would've thought that might be the difference between these two teams? 49ers 26, Cardinals 20.
San Diego (+2.5) at BUFFALO (45.5): I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think the Bills are for real. I'd still stay away from this game, though. Bills 24, Chargers 20.
Dallas (-1) at ST. LOUIS (44.5): Does Austin Davis = Kurt Warner? Maybe, but nothing else on the roster equals Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce or Torry Holt, let alone all three. Still, the Cowboys will find a way to get St. Louis over .500. Rams 26, Cowboys 19.
Washington (+6.5) at PHILADELPHIA (50.5): Is Chip Kelly getting too cute for his own good? We won't find out today, even with the right quarterback starting for the Racists. Eagles 27, Redskins 23.
Houston (-2) at NEW YORK GIANTS (41.5): There's a positive side to Giants owner John Mara being involved in this "internal investigation" being run by the NFL -- maybe it'll keep from actually seeing his own team and wanting to jump out a window. Texans 24, Giants 20.
Minnesota (+10) at NEW ORLEANS (49.5): I'll guarantee you -- I'm a hell of a lot more likely to stay in a Radisson now. Saints 34, Vikings 21.
Tennessee (+7) at CINCINNATI (43): Sports Illustrated has Cincy has the top team in the NFL. They're right. Bengals 26, Titans 13.
Green Bay (+2.5) at DETROIT (53):  I have no clear read on this game ... which is obviously no different than any other game any other week. Lions 27, Packers 24.
Baltimore (-1.5) at CLEVELAND (41.5): If you've stayed a Ravens fan thus far, maybe you should go read this ESPN Between The Lines article about what the Ravens knew when and what they did with that information. Sickening. Browns 23, Ravens 20.

Lock of the Week: Carolina
Trifecta: Carolina, Cincinnati, Indianapolis

2014 Week Two

ATS: 7-9
SU: 6-10
Total $: -$690

2014 Season Totals

ATS: 15-15-2
SU: 15-17
Total $: -$1,050

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